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Page added on October 18, 2012
Challenges of estimating global oil supplies
There’s been a great deal of debate over the last few years about how long it will be until global oil supplies run out. Are we approaching, or have we already passed, ‘peak oil’ – the point beyond which economically viable oil supplies begin to decline?
Whether we like it or not, our modern world stands on foundations of cheap oil, so the debate affects us all.
Understandably we can’t put an exact figure on how much oil remains, but the pessimists and optimists vary widely in their estimates, and it’s a big hindrance to sensible forward planning.
The differences aren’t just down to estimating techniques either, as a review published recently in the journal Energy demonstrates. The study looks at the uncertainties around estimates of global oil resources and reveals that attempts to arrive at a consensus are hindered by some fairly fundamental differences in approach. Like how to define ‘conventional’ and ‘unconventional’ oil, and whether certain resources are technically recoverable at all.
The author concludes that some of the biggest sources of uncertainty can be easily resolved, and suggest how approaches to global estimates might be improved. An important first step is that these discrepancies in approach are acknowledged in future estimates of global oil resources, or we’ll keep comparing apples with pears and never know how big the pie is.
Either way, the less energy we all use the better.
The work was carried out at the UCL Energy Institute supported by the UK Energy Research Centre.
8 Comments on "Challenges of estimating global oil supplies"
Max Reid on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 2:53 pm
Oil is available in plenty, but the type of Oil and the EROEI to get it is the important factor.
BillT on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 3:04 pm
It doesn’t matter how much is left. It only matters how much of it is possible to recover with EROEI shrinking daily. When the ratio is 3+ barrels to get 5 barrels to the refinery, the wells will close down and the age of oil will be over.
GregT on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 3:37 pm
“Whether we like it or not, our modern world stands on foundations of cheap oil, so the debate affects us all.”
The debate does not affect us all, the end of cheap oil affects us all. Whether we run out in one, five, or twenty years is irrelevant. We should be taking action immediately to mitigate the consequences.
Plantagenet on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 8:19 pm
Obama’s incompetence will haunt us for years to come—the billions of dollars he wasted by channelling money to his cronies at now bankrupt firms like Solyndra, Fisker, A123 batteries, ener1, and also to GM and the VOLT will make it much harder in the future to build popular support for using tax dollars to fund alternative energy.
Sharpie on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 10:35 pm
We should have taken action immediately to mitigate the consequences, but we blew it.
BillT on Fri, 19th Oct 2012 1:23 am
Actually, we should have taken action 30+ years ago when President Carter told us what was to come, but we laughed and went on partying. Now, with a permanent hangover, we have to try to put the house back in order and clean up our mess. Not going to be easy or quick, if ever.
BillT on Fri, 19th Oct 2012 1:28 am
Planet, the President does not control the government, the bankers do. War is more profitable than ‘alternatives’ and less disruptive of the current money flow. If you own oil stock or natural gas stock, you don’t want the market ruined by cheap solar or wind power. You want to keep the slaves chained to the power company and the gas station.
We spend about $1,200,000,000,000.00 per year for security/military expenses. That would build 20 nuclear power plants per year or add many gigawatts of solar or wind energy to the grid, but it would destroy the need for oil and natural gas. Think about that.
Field ID Inspection Software on Fri, 26th Oct 2012 5:09 pm
You are raising an important question here, especially considering how oil reliant the world is today. “A review of the uncertainties in estimates of global oil resources” is an interesting resource, we are looking forward to reading it, so thanks for sharing.