ASPO: Future growth in U.S. crude oil reserves

The title, “New data show record growth in U.S. crude oil reserves” might lead most readers to believe that fantastic developments are afoot in the USA. However, if we study the report in detail we can see that large question marks exist over future oil production. The US Energy Information Agency, EIA, has now reported changes in proven reserves during 2011. Recently I discussed how different types of oil reserves are reported and I can suggest that readers might like to look at that blog again. For proven reserves the EIA states the following criteria: “Proved reserves are those volumes of oil and natural gas that geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions”. In its report the EIA studied approximately 1,100 operators in the USA.

For 2010 the EIA stated that the USA’s Crude Oil production was 5.479 million barrels per day (Mb/d, 2.00 billion barrels per year, Gb/y) and for 2011 production rose to 5.652 Mb/d (2.06 Gb/y), an increase of 3%. The EIA states that proven reserves are 29 Gb. At the rate of production seen in 2012 (2.37 Gb/y), these proved reserves would last for a little over 12 years. The reported increase in the rate of oil production of 15% may appear reassuring but in reality it is equivalent to additional reserve of 3.8 Gb, i.e. somewhat more than the production of the year 2012.

The EIA states specifically that “tight oil” reserves (i.e. those to be produced by “fracking”) amount to 3.6 billion barrels. At a production rate of 2 Mb/d (0.73 Gb/y) these reserves would last for approximately 5 years.

In the USA oil reserves are reported as 1P and are difficult to analyse in terms of future production. For the USA to achieve the same rate of oil production as Saudi Arabia it would need to report completely different proven reserve numbers. For many years the USA reported that proven reserves were around ten times larger than annual production. The fact that reserves of “tight oil” are only five times annual production shows that such reserves are not so abundant as traditionally reported reserves for conventional oil. Increased future production rates for tight oil will require much greater than previous reported increases in proved reserves for tight oil during the coming year. This will be an interesting development to follow.

ASPO

5 Comments on "ASPO: Future growth in U.S. crude oil reserves"

actioncjackson on Tue, 6th Aug 2013 11:25 pm 



Energy independence, yay!

rollin on Wed, 7th Aug 2013 12:27 am 



Production increased in 2012 to 6.5 billion barrels. US reserves were on a downhill slide until about 2010.

BillT on Wed, 7th Aug 2013 12:47 am 



First, we do NOT ‘produce’ oil, we recover it.

Second, there is a lot of oil in the ground that will NEVER be recovered at ANY monetary price. EROEI

Som, anything called ‘reserves’ are not necessarily going to add to the energy supply. But, to admit that is to losw all of the fools … er … ‘investors’ that they need to keep the scam going.

BillT on Wed, 7th Aug 2013 7:06 am 



BTW: You might want to read this before you comment …

http://theautomaticearth.com/Energy/shale-is-a-pipedream-sold-to-greater-fools.html

“Shale Is A Pipedream Sold To Greater Fools”

Luke on Wed, 7th Aug 2013 12:47 pm 



As always when EIA comes out with its magic numbers my ears starts itching and I need to stratch behind them.
Suspected to be directly affected by Big Oil and its supporters in the US administration the EIA calculates presumably on command. To attract the greedy investors with pockets full of monetary easing notes.
It also shows the last convulsions of Big Oil and they continuing attempts to deceive us. Knowledgeable people won’t and expose them to their own lies.