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Page added on September 11, 2016
Apache’s West Texas Find Further Discredits Malthusianism
Apache Corp. has announced a major oil-and-gas discovery in an area of Texas that geologists previously dismissed as not likely to have recoverable hydrocarbons. That’s good news for energy consumers, including electric generators, although not particularly welcome for energy producers, where it could contribute to continuing soft prices.
The Journal reported that the area in West Texas near the Davis mountains “had been overlooked by geologists and engineers, who believed it would be a poor fit for hydraulic fracturing. It could be worth $8 billion by conservative estimates, or even 10 times more, according to the company.”
For me, the story is also about the continuing failure of followers of the 18th Century British cleric and philosopher Thomas Robert Malthus, who posited in his 1798 book “An Essay on the Principle of Population” that global population was increasing geometrically and food production only arithmetically. The result, according to Malthus? The world was doomed to famine, collapse, and the end of civilization as we know it.
Thomas MalthusHe was wrong in spades. Malthus failed because he failed to understand the disruptive role of technology.
But that has not deterred others, to this day, from continuing to spout the false Malthusian dystopianism. In 1968, Stanford butterfly biologist Paul Ehrlich and his wife Anne published the best-selling “The Population Bomb,” arguing the same discredited case as Malthus. He still makes his population bomb argument. (An aside: I spent two weeks with Paul and Anne in 2004 in a small group visiting New Zealand’s South Island and subantarctic islands. Lovely people.)
One of Ehrlich’s key allies then and now was physicist John Holdren, President Obama’s science advisor and perhaps the worst choice for a major advisory position in the administration. Holdren was a partner in Ehrlich’s legendary bet with the late University of Maryland economist Julian Simon. As NPR described it two years ago, Ehrlich argued that minerals would become more scarce and expensive as they were used up. Simon argued that technology and brain power would replace the diminishing mineral supply many times over. They made a wager in 1980 on the prices for copper, chromium, nickel, tin and tungsten over a decade.
Ehrlich, with Holdren backing the bet, said prices would soar. Simon said they would fold. In 1990, Simon won, with the prices for the five metals declining by about 50%.
The same sort of false scarcity analysis happened in the energy economy, dating to the 1950s and acclaimed oil and gas geologist M. King Hubbert. In a 1956 paper delivered at the annual meeting of the American Petroleum Institute, he predicted that U.S. oil production would peak around 1965-1970, and decline thereafter. Hubbert’s incorrect prediction guided U.S. energy policy for the next 50 years (and is still prominent in Holdren’s rhetoric on energy supply).
Hubbert was the inspiration of a group of 1970s and 1980s energy policy gurus, who then formed the basis of the “peak oil” enthusiasts of subsequent years. Among them was my good friend and fusion energy expert Bob Hirsch and his former colleague and first U.S. energy secretary the late Jim Schlesinger. As recently as 2007, both were on speaking tours touting the decline of oil and gas production. That was just before the fracking and shale gas and oil revolution hit the U.S.
Again, like Malthus, the peak oil catastrophists failed to reckon with the game-changing role of technology. In this case it was directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which turned the 1970s “oil crisis” that shaped Schlesinger’s and Hirsch’s views, into irrelevance in the 21stCentury.
Apache’s fossil find is further evidence that Malthusian analysis is inherently flawed. It is also good news for consumers around the world. The Journal reported, “The company has begun drilling in the area and says the early wells, which produce more natural gas than oil, are capable of providing at least a 30% profit margin at today’s prices, including all costs associated with drilling.
“Some are so prolific that they can break even at a price of 10 cents per million British thermal units, according to the company.”
96 Comments on "Apache’s West Texas Find Further Discredits Malthusianism"
howmuchforyourwings on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 9:13 am
No scarcity in resources? Really? There is an open pit copper mine in the USA that is two miles wide and one mile deep mining an ore content of less than one percent. Consider almost pure copper nuggets used to be found lying on top of the ground but now we mine a mile deep . Gold used to be found in nuggets on top of the ground, now we are miles deep into the ground on low concentration veins. Move along folks, No resource depletion to see here. Furthermore, the inability of people”s ability to understand how an exponential function works just baffles me. Hey, all you guys that understand the miracle of compound interest on your 401k, that is an exponential fucntion. The miracle of compound interest works in the same exact way on increasing population and decreasing resourses; exponentially. Ignorance abounds in this world. Soon there will be a mass education on this subject. Unfortunately that education will very hard, very real, and very ugly. If one would only study the numbers, which never lie, one would find that Malthus and Erlich are soon to be proven correct. And I agree with the author, Malthus and Erlich could not have seen the technological advance that have come. However, technology ain’t physical, usable, consumable resources. Without resources, technology is useless.
penury on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 9:47 am
You must be a believer, if it has not happened by now, it will never happen, so party time, no resource scarcity ever, no over population, just remember it can not happen here.
rockman on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 10:15 am
“Apache Corp. has announced a major oil-and-gas discovery in an area of Texas that geologists previously dismissed as not likely to have recoverable hydrocarbons.” Great opening line!!! Saved me from wasting time reading the rest. LOL.
As noted in the story below this “previously dismissed” area is the Delaware sub-basin. It’s that portion of the Permian Basin which, after producing many BILLIONS of bbls of oil over the last 50+ years, saw the recent boom in increased production. And also the “dismissed” area that saw some of the heaviest horizontal drilling/frac’ng in the country.
The “new play” that Apache has discovered are the shales that are sandwiched in amongst the formations that have already produced BILLIONS OF BBLS OF OIL. Essentially no different then the area where the Eagle Ford Shale boom developed.
So can the shales of the Delaware Sub-basin become the next boom and produce at least some of those SPECULATED billions of bbls? Certainly a possibility. Given Apache is targeting 5 different formations and it may take as much as 200 wells IN EACH FORMATION tested AND PRODUCED for couple of years only time will tell. And given the 5 X 200 = 1,000 wells drilled and then produced for a couple of years the time factor won’t be very soon. Just as it took a couple of years to get a handle on the EFS potential. A couple of years of oil prices significantly higher then they are today.
A fact not missed by the market analysts that boosted Apache’s stock by 14% based upon the “new discovery” press release. Boosted the stock price back to where it was a few months ago. Such enthusiasm by the market! LOL. We’ll see where it heads in a month or so when no more new numbers are available for release.
Kenz300 on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 10:16 am
Endless growth, especially endless population growth is unsustainable………….
Climate Change will impact all of us and cause enormous problem for countries and people around the world……… this is the great challenge of our times……. will future generations be doomed to suffer the consequences of our actions….
Should We Be Having Kids In The Age Of Climate Change?
http://www.npr.org/2016/08/18/479349760/should-we-be-having-kids-in-the-age-of-climate-change
eugene on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 10:47 am
Thanks for being there Rockman. For a long time, I have appreciated your input in the midst of endless bullshit of the internet.
shortonoil on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 10:55 am
Another shale find, great. There are 60 billion barrels remaining in the Bakken, and probably more than that in the Duvernay. No one could get it out of the ground profitably at $100, so no one is going to be doing it at $45. Until Apache informs us about the permeability of these fields this is just more piece of shale hype. Yes, there is a lot of oil in the ground. Those are called resources. What Apache, and every other producer on the planet needs is reserves. Oil that they can make a profit producing. Low permeability reservoirs don’t fall into that category. That is the part that the author, and Apache have continually failed to mention!
Funny thing about that?
Apneaman on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 11:00 am
I don’t get it. How does 1 company press release about a modest (at best) already known and previously rejected oil find, not yet out of the ground, discredit Malthusianism? Some people are confused and think Malthus’s ideas only apply to their country. Never do these people discuss how there are 7.5 billion humans on the planet(225,000 added daily) and that 3.5 billion live of $2.25 a day or less and among those 1.3 billion live off a $1.25. About a billion do not have access to clean water everyday. Fat rich retards can argue anything. It comes in mighty handy that the World Bank set the poverty standard at $1.25 a day a few years back. I’ve see hundreds of the articles making these claims. So, if these people are so thoroughly convinced that Malthus’s arguments are bunk, why do the keep churning out these pieces? Why doth they protest too much?
“Malthusianism is a school of ideas derived from the political/economic thought of the Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus, as laid out in his 1798 writings, An Essay on the Principle of Population, which describes how unchecked population growth is exponential while the growth of the food supply was expected to be arithmetical. Malthus believed there were two types of “checks” that could then reduce the population, returning it to a more sustainable level. He believed there were “preventive checks” such as moral restraints (abstinence, delayed marriage until finances become balanced), and restricting marriage against persons suffering poverty or defects. Malthus believed in “positive checks”, which lead to ‘premature’ death: disease, starvation, war, resulting in what is called a Malthusian catastrophe.”
“Neo-Malthusianism generally refers to people with the same basic concerns as Malthus, who advocate population control programs, to ensure resources for current and future populations.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism
Jerry McManus on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 11:10 am
It’s not just the “consumers” (gosh, I wonder what will happen when they run out of things to consume?) that will rejoice.
Something tells me a few wolfs on Wall St. will be toasting their good fortune when this obvious pump n’ dump scheme dupes a few idiots into sending some more monopoly money their way.
shortonoil on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 11:16 am
“Just as it took a couple of years to get a handle on the EFS potential. A couple of years of oil prices significantly higher then they are today.”
The world has had an oversupply issue for three years; that has never happened in the 150 year history of the oil age. Prices have been declining for three years; that has never happened in last 56 years. If anyone is depending on prices increasing to make a profit, they had better find some new analysts. Ignoring the facts is one thing, ignoring them at the cost of someone else’s money is something else again.
We have been telling people for the last three years that the long term price of oil is downward. If they don’t want to listen it doesn’t bother us a bit. It is not our money that they are going to be losing.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 11:20 am
Ya. There is ‘drill baby drill’.
And there is ‘pump and dump’.
Often goes together.
Bob on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 12:05 pm
And another batch of investors are being led to their financial doom! Too bad this article didn’t meet the censor’s call of doom and get sent to the bit bucket.
Geogeezer on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 12:42 pm
This author should take time to read what M. King Hubbert really said. In his mid-50s work he clearly stated that his analysis covered only CONVENTIONAL ONSHORE RESOURCES of the lower 48 states, ignoring offshore, Alaskan, and shale oil because the available data were insufficient for analysis. His prediction that U.S. onshore conventional resources would peak in 1971 was precisely on target.
Although world onshore conventional resources were a bit more dificut to analyze because of the state of development in the 1950s his prediction of peaking early in the 2000s was again right on target.
I read your coumns for an occasional piece of data, but I never pay attention to your conclusions because you repeatedly broadcast your ignorance of fundamentals including – but not limited to – your misunderstanding of Hubbart’s work.
ghung on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 12:52 pm
Geogeezer; Comments are open over at Powermag (the source for this article). Maybe you should make your point there:
http://www.powermag.com/blog/apaches-west-texas-find-further-discredits-malthusianism/
Boat on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 1:03 pm
short,
Once again you an amazing aptitude to spread disinformation. From 1974 to 1980 oil prices jumped. The ensuing glut caused revenues to drop from 650 billion to less than 200 billion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980s_oil_glut
GreenPeople's Media on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 2:12 pm
We will now await the “corrected” downward revision of the size of this resource by neutral petrogeologists (or the EIA) without the motivation of stock pump-and-dump behind it.
Maybe 600,000 bbl recoverable?
Klaus Mager on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 2:16 pm
now all we have to do is get rid of this pesky climate change debacle right in front of us, and let the good times roll.
How much more irresponsible can we get? Future generations will need oil for all sorts of things; to burn it up in one frenzy of overconsumption of natural resources; well that seems to be the American way.
peakyeast on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 2:23 pm
No need GHung – someone has already written about that on powermag.
geopressure on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 2:31 pm
Green people’s media: “Maybe 600,000 bbl recoverable?”
—
Do you mean per well???
ekofreak on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 2:41 pm
Those hydrocarbons should stay in the ground or we are doomed. This is the position of every science org on the planet.
Apneaman on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 2:50 pm
geo, don’t you think you should wait until production has been up and running before counting their chickens? So far they are at ZERO. At this point it’s all words.
And GreenPeoples has a legitimate point about downward revisions. Happened many times already. More than I could list.
EIA Cuts Recoverable California Shale Estimates By 96%
http://www.businessinsider.com/eia-monterey-shale-2014-5
rockman on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 3:26 pm
Eugene – “Thanks for being there Rockman.” You’re welcome but just fulfilling my duty as the official oil company shill of peakoil.com.
Joel Jackson on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 3:38 pm
Yeah, there’s no overpopulation anywhere on this planet. I look around my apartment and I don’t see anyone in sight. There I just disproved Malthusianism! Plus there will never be a food shortage in the world, if that seems to be the case, just pray and God will provide you with milk and honey..or maybe even a $100 bill. For there is nothing impossible for God. My God anyway, this is not applicable to people who pray to other Gods different from mine. Mine is the real McCoy! Believe in him now, or forever be subjected to the eternal fire! You might be my fellow brother, but if you don’t believe in my god…die, die, die!
dave thompson on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 3:57 pm
When Apache and Co. stick a drill bit in the ground and show us an old fashioned spindle top gusher I will be impressed with the end of Malthusian thinking.
shortonoil on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 4:11 pm
“When Apache and Co. stick a drill bit in the ground and show us an old fashioned spindle top gusher I will be impressed with the end of Malthusian thinking. “
With well costs at $4.5 million, drilling costs at $24/ barrel, and $45 oil, you will probably have to wait a long, long time. Why don’t you try for something simple? Like a change in the mass of the proton. That might only a take a few hundred billion years.
rockman on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 4:15 pm
Shorty – “The world has had an oversupply issue for three years; that has never happened in the 150 year history of the oil age. Prices have been declining for three years; that has never happened in last 56 years.”
I read the numbers a tad differently: in 1984 the world consumed about 12% less oil then it was capable of producing as seen in the 1980 stats. IOW an oversupply. And today? The world is buying every bbl the producers can deliver so it’s rather difficult to say the world is oversupplied given it’s burning every bbl it can get its hands on.
As far as the inflation adjusted oil price not declining for 3 years or so since 1960: prices declined 78% over 6 years starting in 1980. And then from 1991 they declined about 60% by 1994. Then starting in 1996 they declined 50% thru 1999. Or if you prefer from 1991 to 1997 oil prices declined 73%. And of course how can we forget that oil declined from about $140/bbl to $43/bbl over the next year…or if you prerfer declined to $83/bbl in the following 3 years.
Not sure what your point is about oil prices: for the the last 56 years oil prices have fallen over short periods a number of times. The latest drop shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if the are familiar with the roller coaster ride the oil patch has been on for decades. The only uncertainty was how long it would take.
rockman on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 4:50 pm
Green peep – “We will now await the “corrected” downward revision of the size of this resource by neutral… geologists”.
I are one of them neutral geologists and the 3 billion bbls of oil RESOURCES is probaby close enough. But if you’re new to the game let me explain: bbls of oil RESOURCES aren’t bbls of in place RESERVES and a f*cking long way from PROVED RECOVERABLE RESERVES. LOL.
What I find very interesting is what only insiders like the Rockman would notice: while Apache reports 19 wells drilled and tested in this “new play” no details are provided…so far. Even if lack of infrastructure is preventing production I can assure you each well had a minimum amount of flow testing. One can’t design the production facilities without that data.
And you can take my word: had any of the wells had initial high flow rates it would take a team of wild horses to stop a CEO of pubco from putting it in the press release. Except, perhaps, to keep the “discovery” confidential. But publically announcing THREE BILLION BARRELS OF OIL to the entire f*cking world does tend to let the cat out of the bag. LOL. And besides they are already reporting insanely high lease prices.
So seriously: as significant as that press release might sound to you civilians, what isn’t being said is much more significant to us insiders.
rockman on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 4:55 pm
Klaus – “…to burn it up in one frenzy of overconsumption of natural resources; well that seems to be the American way.” Hmm…the rest of the world is burning up about 5X as much as the US and is containing to look for even more.
Perhaps it’s just the human way.
peakyeast on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 5:32 pm
Rockman: You continue to annoy me! Its so evident when you explain things that I sit and hit myself on the head that I didnt think of it myself… 😀
I suppose (i hope?) im also like that to non-electronics-engineer people when taling about that. :-/
rockman on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 5:39 pm
Apeman – No, the EIA did not significantly cut the amount of recoverable RESERVES from the MS. But they did significantly cut the 15 billion bbls of MS RESOURCES. From the actual 2011 EIA report:
“The largest shale oil formation is the Monterey/Santos play in southern California, which is estimated to hold 15.4 billion barrels or 64 percent of the total shale oil resources shown.”
Same old problem with the incompetent MSM idiots that don’t under the differerbce between resources and reserves. From the very same EIA report:
The size of the technically recoverable oil and natural gas resource base in the United States becomes evident only as producers drill into geologic deposits with oil and gas potential and attempt to produce from them on a commercial basis. As producers find plays to be more or less bountiful than expected, resource estimates are adjusted to reflect that information. As time passes and our knowledge of the resource base and future technologies and management practices improves, estimates of the technically recoverable resource base will be refined. Consequently, the resource estimates in the current report will be modified over time as more wells are drilled and completed, technologies evolve, and the long-term performance of shale wells becomes better established.
Green peep – You see what I mean? The resource vs reserve distinction is not a word game. They have very specific and very different definition for those ofvus that do this for a living. A d pubcos like Apache knows the govt’s SEG will prosecute them for breaking the regs. Which is why they’ll use phrases like “contains 3 billion bbls of oil” because they (and the SEC) understand they ARE NOT SAYING the play has 3 billion bbls of PROVEN RECOVERABLE RESERVES. Did you notice how your own govt’s EIA phrased it in the excerpt above: the MS “is estimated to hold 15.4 billion barrels…”. They didn’t say it will produce one f*cking bbl of oil, did they? Just like me saying my wallet holds $1,000 doesn’t measn I’m going to you a penny, does it? LOL.
We, the oil patch, have been playing this f*cking game for decades. The govt won’t let us LIE to you. But we are free mislead you as long as we follow the guide lines.
Same rule as always: Let the buyer beware. LOL.
rockman on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 5:50 pm
Peaky – It’s like I was telling green peep: for 41 years I’ve listened to many hundreds of oil/NG prospects. From ethical players and con men. I can usually tell whether I’ll like a prospect before I do the tech evaluation by the phrases used in the opening presentation. Even most of the assholes know to not tell a straight out lie because the could be banned by the reviewers for ever.
It might sound subtle to you guys but it’s like a siren going off to me. LOL
peakyeast on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 5:54 pm
Btw. It seems like Kennedy Maize does not take too kindly to comments on powermag that doesnt fit his POV.
I suppose its unbecomming for him to be revealed as a incompetent liar that doesnt read the reports he refers to and has no clue about timeframes nor scale nor quality of findings.
I think he integrity and honesty is about 0. But he is welcome to defend himself here – since he doesnt dare to do it at his own “place”. Coward!
Northwest Resident on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 6:08 pm
“..what isn’t being said is much more significant to us insiders.”
There has been a constant and steady barrage of hype and misinformation coming out of the oil industry for some time (years). I classify it as “propaganda”, and it comes at us mixed in with plenty of financial, political and foreign relations oriented propaganda — in large doses.
It seems that once a week or more, some new “significant” oil or gas find is being announced. But cut through the hype like rockman does in his post, and I think that what you see is a dying industry, one that is desperately struggling to keep “the dream” alive, one that urgently needs to keep investment money coming in, and one that perhaps is very reluctant to recognize its own near-term demise.
The age of oil has been a wild ride. For those that had “the good seats” on that wild ride, it is tough to let go. Especially knowing with certainty that once that ride ends there will be no going back to the way it was.
peakyeast on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 6:13 pm
@rock: Yeah thanks man.
In a year or so when I my company is up and running on its own power – and you need an apprentice for free just write me. I could use some CEO training.
I’m a good secretary too even though im not young and blonde. 😀
kervennic on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 6:20 pm
Send all the african migrants to Davis montains.
We have been unable to find oil here in Europe, so it seems that there is a better future for them in Texas.
Several million applicants a year. And please, do not be Malthusian about it, there is place for everyone in Texas.
Newfie on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 7:12 pm
Malthus will have the last laugh. And he who laughs last laughs best. Heh heh.
onlooker on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 7:24 pm
More like Nature will have the last laugh. Nature bats last.
makati1 on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 7:37 pm
onlooker, you are correct. All this blathering about oil and economies is fluff in the wind. The real world is nature and how we live off of it’s bounty or lack of. I have cut back on my reading and comments here as it is a lost cause for the most part.
Those like yourself and a few others see the real world. All others are in some degree of denial or negotiation with the future. For myself, I have done what I can to ease the pain of the coming events and am now just sitting back and watching the show.
My newest grandson is not likely to make it to adulthood if we keep on this road to Armageddon. If we manage to avoid the nukes, he will have a hard and shortened life trying to survive in a much degraded and harsh world. So be it. Most of the world has never had a different life than that. Being American does not exempt him from reality.
rockman on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 10:10 pm
NR – “…and I think that what you see is a dying industry, one that is desperately struggling to keep “the dream” alive, one that urgently needs to keep investment money coming in, and one that perhaps is very reluctant to recognize its own near-term demise.”
Well, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad. LOL.
First, as I’ve mentioned many times, the industry was dying in 1975 when I started work at Mobil Oil. Same story: my first mentor explained the reality of PO that faced us then. And again: we didn’t (and still don’t) call it peak oil…it was the reserve replacement problem. RRP from here on for brevity. Watching the Winston Churchill story of his death as I type and it makes a good analogy to compare the oil patch to a stroking patient.
We weren’t “dying” per se. Just suffering from the early symptoms of RRP. In the early 70’s we had a minor stroke when the Texas Rail Road Commission lost its ability to control global oil prices. We had almost 25 years of stable oil prices because the TRRC could prevent Texas producers from flooding the market. Did it by limiting production via the “allowable regulation”. Each month the TRRC could force companies to produce less then 100% of their capabilities. If prices started to weaken it could force operator to produce only 70% of their max. Given the US (Texas, actually) was the GLOBAL oil exporter it set the price.
But fortunately the doctor (Iran) showed and infused us with the threat of cutting off imports. That led to $117/bbl (inflation adjusted) by the late 70’s. With the Gulf of Mexico play (less than 600′ water depth) just opening up it allowed huge investments out there as well as onshore. Allowed more then 4,500 rigs drilling.
Which was great because we were already having a great deal of trouble finding oil prospects that could be justified. Well, not so great: look at US production thru that period: despite $billions spent with 4,500+ rigs drilling and no significant production increase. Turns out Hubbert knew what the f*ck he was talking about. LOL.
And then BAM! Another stroke when the high 70’s oil prices drove the world into a recession in the 80’s. Fortunately the huge decrease in oil prices eventually allowed consumers to increase consumption. Unfortunately the lower prices crashed the rig count.
Sound familiar? LOL.
And then thanks to tech improvement (seismic, hz drilling) we recovered a bit. Until the late 90’s when BAM! Another stroke as oil fell to $17/bbl (IA). Then a slow recovery until good times returned in 2008 with high oil prices. And then BAM!!! A massive heart attack (oil falling from $100+/bbl to less than $40/bbl in just months. Coincidental with the mortgage collapse and recession. But fortunately we were put on life support (NG climbing above $10/MCF that fueled the gas shale development). And then BAM! Another heart attack when NG prices collapsed. Not long afterwards we’re rushed into surgery for a bypass (the oil shale boom).
And then we’re feeling great and on the road to full recovery and BAM! The by-pass artery pops open (oil drops to under $30/bbl). And now we’re on life support again but our insurance company has dropped us and we might now be able to pay the huge med bills we’ve racked up (the huge industry debt load).
But f*ck it…I don’t have a DNR order and no one is going to pull the plug on me. So even if I flat line for a bit it ain’t over till it’s over…CLEAR!!!
It just struck me that typically most med expenses are rack up over the last 10 years or so of one’s life and we’ve seen the same dynamic in the oil patch over the last 10 years or so. LOL.
Bottom line: even if the public wasn’t aware of it for a long time most in the oil patch knew we were terminal many decades ago. And like most folks in such a state we weren’t going to advertise the fact to anyone. Like the life insurance company (stock holders) we were signing up with. LOL.
Alright…time to watch the season finale of “The Last Ship”.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 11:16 pm
rockman — I’ll take 2 out of 3 any day! Great synopsis, and even better allegory. BAM!! We’re fucked!
rockman on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 11:28 pm
NR – What do mean “we” white man? I’m 65 with MS. I’ll leave the real pain for you kids. LOL.
But who knows: I had a defibrillator implanted in my chest 6 weeks ago.
Northwest Resident on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 1:27 am
Hang tough, rockman. You’re not going to want to miss the spectacle that is about to unfold. I don’t think we’ll have to stick it out for much longer to see the grand finale. Whether this current and deepening stock market plunge is the one that ultimately takes us down doesn’t matter. We WILL see this stock market crash 40-50%, and that is just based on historical norms. The only difference is, what will “they” do to get us out of the hole that this upcoming stock market crash — and associated mass bankruptcies, layoffs, shutdowns, etc. — puts us in? More debt? No way. Another trillion$ or two or even a hundred trillion$ isn’t going to change the spiraling trajectory that the global economy and the oil industry are on. The long wait to stand witness to the inevitable end of the age of oil is just about over.
sirshake on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 1:52 am
Some great comments here.
Shale is such a joke. A joke that can only be understood by someone who handled cores and worked on the wells.
“The “new play” that Apache has discovered are the shale’s that are sandwiched in amongst the formations that have already produced BILLIONS OF BBLS OF OIL. Essentially no different then the area where the Eagle Ford Shale boom developed. ”
Keep it up Rockman. This is the level of detail that the public does not get or understand.
brough on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 3:58 am
This article is ridiculous !
How can a small to medium sized oil and gas discovery in 2016 disprove a theory made in 1798.
I think maltusian theory still holds true, same as the laws of thermodynamics.
Davy on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 5:46 am
Half of global overshoot is in this circle:
“The Majority Of The World’s Population Lives In This Circle”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-12/majority-worlds-population-lives-circle
“THE POPULATION EPICENTER”
“We are in the business of explaining the world through compelling and intuitive visuals – and we thought that this powerful “meme” could use a refresh with some additional graphical context. To start, we’ve used 2016 information on population. There are now at least 3.8 billion people living inside the highlighted circle, and that’s not even including the tally from countries that are partially in the circle like Pakistan or Russia. The circle holds 22 of the world’s 37 megacities – massive cities that hold at least 10 million inhabitants. It also includes the five most populous cities on the planet: Tokyo, Jakarta, Seoul, Karachi, and Shanghai, which alone combine to hold 144.5 million people.”
Cloggie on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 5:58 am
Davy’s link leads to the following conclusions of interest for people frequenting this board:
– that there is still much better chance of survival for a European-American in the US, espescially in the Mid-West than say in the Ps
– it also illustrates the fear of senior Australian politicians with a brain that virtually empty Australia could become a tasty and easy prey for overcrowded China under the pretext of a Chinese-US conflict over these fake rocks in the South China Sea. The behavior of Ps president Duterte vis a vis the US already illustrates of who he thinks is going to win a potential standoff.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/philippines-duterte-says-not-a-fan-of-us-plots-own-course/3116342.html
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-australias-dangerous-ally-11858
makati1 on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 6:41 am
Cloggie, you seem to have the same disease that most Westerners have, no matter where you live, that Asia is the center of your problems and that they are going to suffer more than you will. LMAO!
These people can survive on a bowl of rice and a couple of bites of fish. Most have no need of fuel to keep warm, clothing other than modesty, and few would miss oil, NG or electricity. Most owe no banks or have insurances, retirement or other “needs” common to the Western world.
But I am butting my head on a steel wall built over years by some of the best propaganda mills in history. I guess we will have to wait and see who suffers most. My bet is on the West, not the East. I doubt we will have much longer to wait to see who is correct.
Cloggie on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 7:01 am
“Cloggie, you seem to have the same disease that most Westerners have, no matter where you live, that Asia is the center of your problems and that they are going to suffer more than you will. LMAO!”
I don’t consider Asia my problem but I do think that if push comes to shove they are going to suffer more than westerners, yes. But then again, I don’t think that resource depletion is going to bite any time soon for anybody and that war or financial collapse is more likely to happen on a shorter time frame.
“These people can survive on a bowl of rice and a couple of bites of fish. ”
If Asians can survive on that, everybody else can if they have no choice.
In the context of the upcoming US elections there is a lot of attention for the US lately in Holland. Most prominent is an interesting series made by a Dutch very prominent anchor woman Eva Jinek, of Czech ethnicity and born in Oklahoma, who lived in DC until her parents decided to give her a European upbringing in Holland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Naosof3m5nA
“De Verenigde Staten van Eva”
You can watch it online but I am afraid streaming outside the Netherlands is probably blocked:
http://tinyurl.com/hl7jfgc
She meets ordinary Americans, not in interview setting but “in action”: visiting a shooting club, rodeo, fire fighters, preppers, blacks at the barber shops, her mother’s friend, an Indian shaman, etc. etc.
Americans are often gleefully portrayed on this board as fat suckers, unable to survive, but when I see these people, generally well educated, polite and warm-hearted, I am not so convinced that non-Americans have a head start when it comes to survival.
Americans may not be the greatest history or geography buffs of the white race, but when it comes to pure pragmatism, a healthy little faith in the benevolence of government, in self-reliance and appreciation for all things related to survival (including guns), I think Americans have pretty good cards in survival at a relatively benign level, far better than a rice bowl and a few bites of fish.
shortonoil on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 8:43 am
“No way. Another trillion$ or two or even a hundred trillion$ isn’t going to change the spiraling trajectory that the global economy and the oil industry are on. The long wait to stand witness to the inevitable end of the age of oil is just about over. “
The industry is no longer replacing the reserves that it is extracting. That means that its net worth is declining by the same magnitude as its gross sales. This is no different than a retail company selling off its inventory, and not replacing it. When the selves are bare they are out of business.
The best that the petroleum industry can now do is to maximize its revenue. The price now being set is the point where it generates the greatest cash flow. Since revenue equals Price X Quantity, and if the price goes up Quantity will go down, and so will revenue. Price has now hit its upper boundary level. Increasing price will translate into declining revenue.
The industry can no longer produce greater revenue with a higher price. It can only increase revenue by increasing Quantity. That occurred at the energy half way point of 2012. Increasing reserves is now a sunk cost, as it can only depress the price. The industry is now in the position of having to increase production to increase revenue which depresses prices. It is a race to the bottom.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
shortonoil on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 10:10 am
“But then again, I don’t think that resource depletion is going to bite any time soon for anybody and that war or financial collapse is more likely to happen on a shorter time frame. “
For someone who doesn’t think that it is important to know how oil is even produced, that is quit the statement! But according to your crystal ball analysis depletion is not a short term problem, and will have no immediate consequences.
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icbkDFACM4iA/v2/-1x-1.png
The oil industry is not making any money because oil is $44/ barrel. We know that because it was $48.67 last year, and they didn’t make any money. Venezuela is eating its cats and dogs, Saudi Arabia is borrowing money to pay its bills and central Canada is starting to look like a parking lot for a lawn sale. Cloggie is not seeing any immediate problem with depletion because he is hiding under his bed. A big part of the rest of the world is beginning to die from it.
War and financial collapse are very likely to happen because oil depletion is killing the economy. A dying economy often spells war, and always spells depression.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
marmico on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 11:56 am
The oil industry is not making any money because oil is $44/ barrel
You are a fuctard. The Persian Gulf “makes money” @ $44/barrel.
After the ETP garbage was rejected at the Hall/Bardi journal, keep on cumming, jerkoff.