World population to reach nine billion by 2050

The 2008 Revision of the official UN populations projections forecast minimal change in the population of the more developed nations, which should rise from 1.23 billion to 1.28 billion during the same period.

That population would have in fact dipped to 1.15 billion without the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, expected to average 2.4 million persons annually from 2009 to 2050, it noted.

In 2005-2010, net migration in eight countries or areas more than doubled the contribution of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth: Belgium, Macau, Czech Republic, Luxembourg, Qatar, Singapore, Slovenia and Spain.

During the 2010-2050 period, major net receivers of foreign migrants are projected to be the United States (1.1 million annually), Canada (214,000), Britain (174,000), Spain (170,000), Italy (159,000), Germany (110,000) Australia (100,000) and France (100,000).

Major countries of net emigration are expected to be Mexico (334,000 annually), China (309,000), India (253,000), the Philippines (175,000) and Pakistan (161,000).

The population of the 49 least developed nations is meanwhile slated to double from 0.84 billion this year to 1.7 billion in 2050. Growth in the rest of the developing world is estimated to be robust, but less rapid, with its population increasing from 4.8 billion to 6.2 billion between now and 2050.

Future growth would depend on the future direction of fertility rates, with fertility declines from 2.56 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.02 children per woman in 2045-2050, according to the most probable scenario.

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