World crops could decline 16 pct due to warming

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) – Global warming could send world agriculture into serious decline by 2080 with productivity collapsing in some developing countries while it improves in a few rich nations, a study reported on Wednesday.

India, Pakistan, most of Africa and most of Latin America would be hit hardest, said economist William Cline, the study’s author. The United States, most of Europe, Russia and Canada would probably see agricultural gains if climate change continues on its current course, the study found.
Overall, the world’s agricultural productivity was forecast to decline by between 3 percent and 16 percent by 2080, according to the study published by the Washington-based Center for Global Development and the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Among developed countries, Australia’s outlook was bleakest with predicted declines in crop yields ranging between 16 percent and 27 percent. In the developing world, fast-growing India’s declines were forecast between 29 percent and 38 percent while Sudan and Senegal both had predicted crop declines of more than 50 percent, essentially a collapse of agricultural productivity.

The wide range between the low and high end of the forecast depends on how much carbon dioxide emissions actually spur some crops, Cline said. Plants absorb carbon dioxide, a climate-warming greenhouse gas emitted by coal-fired power plants, petroleum-fueled vehicles and some natural processes.

Reuters AlertNet