Why the United States Invaded Iraq and is Now Thinking About Invading Iran

…But the fact is that in 15 years the North American and Asia Pacific oil reserves will be depleted. This will represent a marked reduction in oil supplies worldwide. In other words, within 15 years, if we do not increase oil production drastically in the Middle East and elsewhere, the world will face tremendous oil shortages. Increasing oil production is not that easy either. Each oil field has an optimum production rate. If one tries to go beyond that rate and tries to sustain high production rate, one damages the oil field and thereby substantially reducing the amount of recoverable oil. This problem is well documented by the oil industry.

But what about the new oil discoveries? Well, there have been very little new discoveries; the future doesn’t seem that bright either. According to Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) analysis of the long-term world oil supply, we can expect to discover only 10% more oil in the future. [6] Even this 10% is disputed. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO), which closely follows the development in the oil industry, the Foundation of Economic Sustainability (FEASTA), and others see an alarming trend in the future oil discovery and production.

If one looks at the amount of oil discovered in the years from 1930 to the present one sees a clear downward trend in new discoveries; this in spite of using more money and better technologies.

In March 2005, HIS energy (an international oil consultancy firm) did a comprehensive analysis of the world oil supply and demand and reached the following conclusion: that even if one includes Natural Gas production and all other liquid fuels in our total available supplies, there will be a shortage anytime from 2011 to 2020.

Mid-East Realities