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Page added on January 24, 2019
Why do Societies Collapse? Diminishing Returns are a Key Factor
Why do civilizations collapse? It is a question that has been haunting the nebulous entity we call “The West” from the time when Edward Gibbon published his “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire,” in 1776. The underlying question in Gibbon’s massive study was ‘are we heading for the same destiny as the Romans?’ A question that generations of historians have tried to answer, so far without arriving to answer on which everyone would agree.
There are, literally, hundreds of “explanations” for the decline and fall of empires, and the same confusion reigns for the fall of the past civilizations rising to glory and then biting the dust, becoming little more than ruins and footnotes in history books. Is there a single cause for these collapses? Or is collapse the result of many small effects that, somehow, gang up together to push the great beast down the Seneca Cliff?
One of the most fascinating interpretations of the collapse of civilization is Joseph Tainter’s idea that it is due to “diminishing returns.” It is a well-known concept in economics that Tainter adapts to the historical cycle of civilizations, focusing on the control structures designed to keep together the whole system, the bureaucracy for instance. Tainter attributes these diminishing returns to an intrinsic property of control structures to become less efficient as they become larger. Below, you can see a rather well-known graph taken for Tainter’s book “The Collapse of Complex societies.” (1988)
Tainter’s idea is fascinating for several reasons, one is that it generates some order in the incredible confusion of hypotheses and counter-hypotheses of the debate on societal collapse. If Tainter is right, then the many phenomena we observe during the collapse are just a reflection of an inner sickness of the society undergoing it. Barbaric invasions, for instance, are not the reason that led the Roman Empire to fall, the Barbarians just exploited the chance they saw to invade a weakened empire.
A problem with Tainter’s idea is that it is qualitative: it is based on the available historical data, for instance, the debasing of the Roman currency, but the curve of the diminishing returns is just drawn by hand. One question you might want to ask is: fine, there are diminishing returns, but where is the collapse in the curve? Another one could be: if the system experiences diminishing returns, why doesn’t it just retrace the curve to go back to where it was before?
These and other questions are examined in a system dynamics study that myself and my coworkers, Ilaria Perissi and Sara Falsini, performed. The idea is that if a civilization is a complex system, then it should be possible to model it using system dynamics, a tool specifically designed for this purpose. So, we built a series of models inspired by the concept of “mind-sized” models. That is, models that don’t pretend to be a detailed description of the system but try to catch the basic mechanisms that make the system move and, sometimes, go through tipping points and collapse. We found that on the basis of some simple assumption, it is possible to produce a curve that qualitatively looks like Tainter’s one
The system dynamics model tells us that the origin of the diminishing returns lies in the gradual depletion of the resources that flow through the system. It is not so much an effect of increasing complexity in itself, the problem is sustaining that complexity.
Then, the model also tells us what happens on “the other side” of the curve. That is, what happens if the system continues its trajectory beyond the point where Tainter’s curve stop. The curve shows a clear hysteresis, that is, it doesn’t follow the earlier path, but it remains always on a low-benefit trajectory. It means that cutting on bureaucracy doesn’t make the system more efficient.
These results are not the final word on the question of societal collapse. But they do provide some fundamental insight, I think. It is the fact that the system is “alive” as long as its resources provide good returns — in terms of energy resources, it means they have a good EROEI (energy returned on energy invested). If the EROEI goes down, then the system falls into the Seneca Cliff.
Of course, since our society depends on fossil fuels, we are bound to go that way because the depletion of the best resources is progressively lowering the EROEI of the system. If we want to keep alive some kind of complex society, we can’t do that by scraping the bottom of the barrel, desperately trying to burn what we can still burn. But, unfortunately, it is exactly what most governments in the world are trying to do. It is a good way to speed up toward the impending cliff.
What we should do, instead, would be to move as fast as possible toward a renewable-based society. We are lucky that we have energy technologies efficient enough in term of EROEI that they could support a transition to a better, cleaner, and more prosperous world. Too bad that nobody seems to want them.
There has to be something in the concept of “BAU” that makes it one of the most powerful attractors you can simulate in a system dynamics model. And so we are moving toward an uncertain future, but one thing that we can be sure of is that fossil fuels will not accompany us there.
95 Comments on "Why do Societies Collapse? Diminishing Returns are a Key Factor"
Dave Thompson on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 1:45 pm
“What we should do, instead, would be to move as fast as possible toward a renewable-based society” To bad there is absolutely no evidence that this “renewable-based society” is remotely possible.
Cloggie on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 2:22 pm
Your absolutely right Dave renewables just can’t stand on there own two feet without fossil fuels once the system collapses which is already happening and will really pick up pace this year renewables will be a distant memory in the future.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 5:05 pm
Gaddafi sodomized: Video shows abuse frame by frame (GRAPHIC)
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/xlxdrd
I can’t wait to see the same thing happen to Putin!
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 5:08 pm
Trump doesn’t want the wall to stop Mexicans, he wants the wall as a monument to his presence on Earth. Long after he’s dead that wall will be there, and everyone will call it Trump’s Wall. Even after it’s proven to be completely ineffective at stopping illegal migration the wall will stand, because it will cost as much to tear it down as it will to just leave it in place. What Trump doesn’t, and can’t, understand is that it will come to symbolize folly and wasteful spending by the GOP, and will contribute to his memory being the laughingstock of human experience.
Anonymouse on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 6:00 pm
It would only take mental health professionals a few minutes, just casually scanning I AM THE DAVYTURDS comments, regardless of which of his dysfunctional ‘personalities’ craps them out, to decide he was a candidate for permanent incarceration in a mental institution.
Lets hope that 2019, is the year that finally sees I AM THE DAVYTARD, committed to a long-term isolation cell in the missishiti nuthouse. And I hope it the one they put you in DavyMOB, is the kind of facility that ends up the subject of a segment on 60 minutes.
That would make all the better….
Retard
Bot alert on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 6:30 pm
anonobot does his one hit per day bot visit. He will be gone soon not to reappear for a day. Bye bot boy.
makati1 on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 6:35 pm
Anon, there are only three futures for Davy and his clones:
1. A mental health facility, or
2. Going postal and killing someone, or
3. Dying of a drug overdose.
Lets hope for #1 or #3. The Us has enough senseless killing.
Dave Thompson on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 6:49 pm
So far no evidence. All slings and arrows killing the messenger. Show us all the evidence.
Davy on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 7:11 pm
Makato showing his boy love a little support. LOL. Your boy anon is about your only friend left here, makato. The pervert JuanP is another but he is self destructing so quickly who knows how long he will be around. You are losing it too makato. Old age is catching up with you.
Davy on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 7:20 pm
Makato, BtW, I will clean your shit up tomorrow morning. You can be a lunatic all night. Have fun weirdo.
I will deal with the identity pervert JuanP tomorrow also.
Pathetic people
makati1 on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 7:23 pm
Delusional Davy, proving his immaturity, arrogance and stupidity once more with his pathetic posts. The only thing you clean up, Davy is goat shit. LMAO
dave thompson on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 7:51 pm
Real nice comments so far, yet no evidence for what this article proposes. Thanks.
makati1 on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 8:21 pm
Davy, is your life so boring and unfulfilled that you have to go back and see what comments you missed while you were sleeping? Then make some immature, arrogant, delusional rebuttal because someone pointed out how the US is failing and other parts of the world are rising? And you claim I have no life. Hypocrite! Loser! LMAO!
Cloggie on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 8:35 pm
US and UK, both political systems in total deadlock. Doesn’t bode well for the prospect of the continued dominance of the Five Eyes.
/snicker
On a positive note, we all will continue to converse in English as the alternative, Latin, the lingua franca of 1600 years, is such a hassle.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6629561/Senate-bills-break-shutdown-fail-SIX-Republicans-rebel-against-Trump-vote-Dem-bill.html
It looks like the Dems are using the Shutdown to attempt to humiliate Trump and topple him, and Trump uses the Shutdown to topple the US state altogether, an honorable undertaking if there ever was one.
Meanwhile Macron attacked (no-deal) Brexit, saying it can’t be delivered and that the idea was based on a pack of lies. Everybody is going to suffer, but the British the most, he rubbed it. Difficult to dismiss.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6629779/French-president-Macron-BLASTS-Brexit-saying-UKs-bid-leave-Europe-delivered.html
I continue to Remain mildly positive about him, until a real Gaullist like Fillon takes over to finally blow up the West and the post-1945 order. It’s coming.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59317
Davy on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 8:35 pm
After all these years makato with me telling you what you can or cannot say you still keep saying whatever you want. One of us is obviously extremely stupid and a very slow lerner.
Anonymouse on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 8:38 pm
Oh, look, the exceptionalturd is going to ‘clean the place’ up. Sure you are. Hey DavyKNOB, I know a place in desperate need of cleaning, that ,horror story .9 acre ‘farm’ you squat on. I wonder when the last time that place got a cleaning?
(spoiler alert-probably never).
You should clean that place up,really. If you like, I can link you picture of what shovels, rakes, brooms look like, so you can more easily recognize what they are and what they are for. Go clean that dump of yours, instead of ‘offering’ to clean up the internet. Ill even hide the links behind tinyURLs if you like. That should make you click on them immediately and, feel clever and smug at the same time.
Hop to it, to retard. Come back in a couple years (or dont), when you are done.
makati1 on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 8:39 pm
Everything wears out, including countries. Like Rome, the wealth goes to the top in the US. Like Rome, the plebs will get tired of bread and circus, especially when the elite can no longer provide it (financial collapse). The US will either split in a bloody civil war or it will become a totally fascist police state with a dictator running things with an iron hand that will make any previous dictators look like Mary Poppins.
Hitler never had the electronic means to control like America has. America’s dictator will have total control of every serf’s life from birth to death. If you doubt this you need an education in the real world.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/kwxwjn/pros-and-cons-of-getting-a-microchip-283
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/meet-the-humans-with-microchips-implanted-in-them/
https://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/item/18184-will-microchip-implants-in-humans-become-mandatory
http://humansarefree.com/2015/03/nbc-reports-americans-will-receive.html
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/6237364/ns/health-health_care/t/fda-approves-computer-chip-humans
You want a job, where’s your chip implant? You want to buy groceries? Where is you chip implant? You want to live in a house? Where is your chip implant? You want a family….
No? Better read the above articles and think about it.
Davy on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 8:40 pm
Oops sorry. Lurner. Stupid cell phone spell chekker.
makati1 on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 8:42 pm
Davy: “One of us is obviously extremely stupid and a very slow lerner.” Yep! And everyone on here knows it is you.
BTW: Not “lerner” it is spelled “learner”. you just proved my point. Doesn’t you old I-phone have spellcheck? LOL
makati1 on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 8:46 pm
Cloggie, it’s fun watching Trumpet destroy what is left of the Us isn’t it? I wonder if he realizes that he IS building a wall, but it is isolating the US, not protecting it. Every tweet is a new brick in the wall. Never a day goes by that he doesn’t add more.
Cloggie on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 9:14 pm
I deeply admire the stamina of Trump, who singlehandedly is taking on an entire cynical political system and still is in the WH. His task is even bigger than that of Vlad the European was facing in 2000. From this perspective Trump is on par with those other dissidents of the ZOG-system, JFK and Nixon, who both were removed from office, because they were dissidents.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 9:19 pm
Clogg
He is taking on shit..His cabinet is the wealthiest ever worth around 2.9 billion..He gave the largest tax cuts ever to the elites..And increased the military budget…
He is the dumbest president ever and will be a one termer for sure..
You just want to worship an authority figure because you are a coward who can’t make it on his own..
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 9:21 pm
US will be oil indempenet right around the time a global shortage hits..Sucks to be Europe and Asia..this will work out great for America..We can pick up the scraps from the post collapse EurAsia world..
LOL
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 9:24 pm
Mak
Micro chips? You have turned into nothing more than an old scaremongering crank..
Remember when you said China’s debt to GDP was only around 50 percent..Because you didn’t know they omit the actual numbers..You are true moron..That will teach you not to do your homework..
Typical boomer brain..LOL
Cloggie on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 9:32 pm
The world’s most renowned freedom fighter, I mean George Soros, has launched a scathing attack against… China!
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46996116
It should give you a clear idea of the akward situation mr Globalist is in.
After for decades having promoted that the US should export its industry to China, in anticipating that China would be a meek participant of the NWO of the Soros-bunch, now all of a sudden China turns out to have a will of its own, aspires global leadership, away from the Soros-bunch. It’s not fair!
For a self-asserting European these are all fascinating developments, opening up the possibility of realizing the admittedly Hitleresque target of parking said Soros-bunch somewhere at the bottom of the Grand Canyon and start white civilization all over again.
Mobster/apneaman need not apply.
DMyers on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 10:09 pm
The law of diminishing returns does not apply to us. We are special! We’re not going to collapse. We have this thing locked in. It is meant to be.
makati1 on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 10:10 pm
Ah MOB, you continue to prove your ignorance, immaturity and just plain stupidity. Do you like to take the opposite side just so that you can be knocked down? I post articles proving my assertion and you just ignore them so you can act like the immature jackass you are.
Suicide is a big thing in Amerika these days. When are you going to join the club? Nah! No courage, just bullshit like your daddy Davy. Stocking up on lube for that big thug daddy you will soon be toyboy for? LOL
makati1 on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 10:22 pm
Cloggie, we know that, within the next decade, most of the “problems”, like Soros, will be dead. I look forward to that time.
makati1 on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 10:23 pm
Sarcasm DMyers? ^_^
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 10:24 pm
Fuck off Clogg, you are the biggest idiot on here. After mes and Davy of course.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 24th Jan 2019 10:51 pm
Davy is one of my sock puppets. I only use the Davy sock when I go off my (illegal) meds and i’m feeling more confrontational then usual.
Cloggie on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 12:32 am
The law doesn’t apply to the Ribbon Cutter in Chief:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6629275/Duke-Edinburgh-seen-wearing-seatbelt-passenger-seat-police-warning-following-crash.html
Cloggie on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 12:37 am
Who owns Venezuela?
Candidates: US (support the insurgent) against Russia and China and Ven. army (who back Maduro).
The Venezuelans themselves are excluded from the competition.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/venezuela-welche-rolle-spielen-donald-trump-jair-bolsonaro-china-und-russland-a-1249646.html
Cloggie on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 12:51 am
What BoJo and Farage didn’t tell.
Vultures are circling around the carcass of the British economy:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1076985/Brexit-news-UK-EU-France-Emmanuel-Macron-Netherlands-British-business-latest
“French BREXIT PLOT to DESTROY British business: Devious Macron covertly targeting UK firms”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dutch-try-to-lure-250-british-based-companies-over-brexit-k3xxx9ghc
“Dutch try to lure 250 British‑based companies over Brexit”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8267326/dutch-government-lure-firms-brexit/
“DUTCH ‘WOO BRIT FIRMS’ Dutch Government trying to lure 250 British firms away from the UK after Brexit”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/brexit-bombardier-brexit-1.4990973
“Airbus, Bombardier warn of consequences for U.K. factories in case of no-deal Brexit”
At work I launch the google query “Shell Unilever return to the Netherlands Brexit” every hour, so far without spectacular results.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/brexit-companies-leave-uk-jobs-economic-impact-airbus-sony-a8744986.html
“Is Brexit causing hundreds of companies to leave the UK?”
Brexit is good for business, especially continental European business.
Of course you can leave Europe without running the risk of being invaded or bombed… but you have to do so strip-naked.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2018/12/10/brexit-is-russia-getting-what-it-wanted/#64e63f514cc7
“Brexit: Is Russia Getting What It Wanted?”
Exactly: Britain out, Russia in. We are entering a completely new geopolitics here, with European unity holding and Anglo-Zionism biting the dust. Now that’s an uplifting thought to enter the weekend with!
Nasrullah khan on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 12:58 am
Not diminishishing returns rather lack of will and skill to reverse challenges
Cloggie on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 1:59 am
The last of the Davos people.
Davos, that’s globalism pure. In the old days, if you were somebody in global politics, you ensured to show up there. But this is 2019. The only one who does show up is political corps Merkel. Who doesn’t show up are: Trump, Putin, Xi, Macron, May.
Who does show up is a Swedish Climate Greta:
http://www.pi-news.net/2019/01/die-inszenierung-der-schwedischen-klima-greta-in-davos/
Climate Change, the last great hope of the Davos people, aka civilized communists.
makati1 on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 2:18 am
I forgot to tell you I love you Juan and you too anon. I dream of warm bodies next to mine here in this miserable lonely country. It is 70 degrees here but I am a horny old man and want some man love.
Anonymouse on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 2:48 am
Hey everyone, cloggedtoilet here, is slowly drifting back towards his personas overt climate-change denial-ism (again). He must figure he has avoided mentioning the subject long enough that everyone has more or less forgotten about his earlier statements on the matter. That, or he finally realized no on here gives a shit about breexit, or WW2, and figures the best way to get someone, anyone, besides the exceptionalturd, to pay attention to him, is to dust off his climate change denial-ism and talk about that again for a while.
Oh yea, and commies. Its always those damn commies, plotting to take away cloggedscphicters……what exactly? They threaten to take away your Torah? Turn your synagogue into a communist bookstore or something? Whatever the ‘commies’ did to cloggedcolon here, it must have been bad, since he wont STFU about them, either.
Cloggie on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 3:16 am
Where exactly do I “deny” climate change, you dumbfuck? Reading and understanding is not your cup of tea, eh? Go play basketball with the bros, basketcase and planetary embarrassement.
Theedrich on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 3:39 am
Diminishing returns are everywhere: Consumer electronics with their rapid depreciation are the most obvious example. Each generation of cellphones offers more and more “apps” than most people can ever use, or even know how to use. Last year’s phones are regarded as passé, if not defunct. And they are produced in China, South Korea or elsewhere in East Asia for a fraction of their selling prices in the U.S. America could not possibly manufacture them profitably domestically — because diminishing returns have made it too expensive. Ditto for what were once called “killer apps” such as the original electronic spreadsheets. (Does anyone today remember Lotus 1-2-3?) Microsoft keeps “updating” its software, to the great irritation of most users, but only because diminishing returns threatens the Redmond, Washington organization with decline at every moment.
Similarly in the overstocked auto industry, where increasingly exorbitant Yankee labor costs compel ever more automation (AI) and export of production abroad. (The phrase “increasing costs” is just another form of the term “diminishing returns.”) Likewise in clothing, furniture and a thousand other fields.
But the most overpowering and inevitable form of diminishing returns is evident in the sphere of weaponry of the most lethal variety. The U.S. is no longer unparalleled in this field, although the politicians have not yet recognized this fact. New hypersonic missiles, anti-aircraft systems (cf. the Russian С–Четыреста [S-400] Триумф), drone submarines, and other unprecedented tools of war are making the “indispensable nation” think twice about invading the space of Russia and China.
Naturally, the CFR, CIA and Pentagonians are so addicted to regime-changing weak countries, that it is hard for them to break the habit. Thus there is now much preachery about overturning Venezuela. After all, it has so much oil which the current, admittedly Marxist dictatorship controls, that it is only right for America to intervene and free the stupidoes who elected that dictatorship in the first place. But the expense involved in generating yet another “popular revolution” may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. So diminishing returns may interfere with the best laid plans of mice and Swamplings in such a case. Never mind the countless military adventures already bleeding the Yankee superpower dry. In reality, Libya was turned into a basket case, Afghanistan is unwinnable, Syria is all but lost, Iraq mostly hates us, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are sucking as much blood as possible out of Uncle Sap, and mindless Mohammedanism is on the march.
The American populace expects miracles, and its politicians promise them. Among other things, politics is performance art, and the “everything-should-be-free” crowd is gaining in popularity. But reality will not join the show. Tainter’s rule of diminishing returns is gaining force by the year. Massive corruption (cf. inter alia the shale-oil scams) only accelerates the collapse.
As Rome showed, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 4:01 am
All of the extremist killings in the US in 2018 had links to right-wing extremism, according to new report
https://www.businessinsider.com/extremist-killings-links-right-wing-extremism-report-2019-1
bot alert on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 4:19 am
Anonymouse on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 2:48 am
Davy on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 4:29 am
“All of the extremist killings in the US in 2018 had links to right-wing extremism, according to new report”
I didn’t see many right wing names in that reference there MOB. I think killings were related to mental issues. There are right wing crazies out there no doubt but you blind lying leftist dream up all kinds of shit as need be to justify your counter extremism. The new extremist are people like you MOB. Your extremist fantasy is dreaming of breeding the daughters of rich whites when your fantasy collapse comes. That is documented multiple times on this forum. You sick bastard are the worst thing to happen to legitimate liberalism and to think people like dumb hund was cheering you on the other day. He is another sick blind lying extremist liberal bastard.
Cloggie on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 4:40 am
“All of the extremist killings in the US in 2018 had links to right-wing extremism, according to new report”
Most homicides in the US are black-on-black and black-on-white. These are to be booked as non-extremist killings, for ideological reasons.
Glad to be of help!
Cloggie on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 4:44 am
“We are going to eat our children” latest:
Next year ze Germans are going to be only 1% richer than this year.
Where are the life boats!?
makati1 on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 5:03 am
I enjoyed your summary of the current decline of the US, Theedrich. You are the only one posting long comments here worth reading. I agree with your observations 100% as usual. Of course, now you will be attacked by the rabid deniers of reality. You know who they are.
The US is the perfect example of “diminishing returns” in every area. They cannot even win wars of choice over a few hundred goatherds in a 3rd world country, yet they continually threaten the two super powers with the means to wipe the US out of existence in an hour. Arrogant stupidity or insanity or both? We shall see.
Davy on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 5:55 am
We have such a complex civilization now that it is difficult to pinpoint sources of decline effectively except in broad generalizations. It is clear through science we are in a trajectory that is symptomatic of a general decline phase. Systematically we could call it an undulating plateau of growth along with waste and decay. Human civilization has grown so large and complex that it is clear depletion and diminishing returns of technology and also network management are at boundaries of effectiveness in general but not necessarily in detail. Areas are undergoing constructive change. Destructive change has opened up some new niches of growth. It is clear we are still growing although not all the growth can be considered healthy and productive. A significant amount is malinvestment and waste but the amount of real and productive growth is still powering us through with some impressive results both technologically and with resource utilization.
The effect on the planet is not good. At this point with so many people and so much affluence the planet is in localized failure and overall general decline. This is well known through science. It is thought by academia and scientist we can choose a low carbon footprint and dramatically reduce this human planetary decline. I don’t think it is possible until the narrative changes. Ugo hints at this at the end of this article. We should move quickly towards renewable with the hope behavior catches up. What else can we do?
Davy on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 5:56 am
When looking at what behavior is needed I would offer a “REAL” green approach. This is based on less affluence. It is based on less people. It also points to means testing technology in this regards. It means if we are going to utilize low net energy sources like biomass, solar, wind and permaculture food then we must adjust our technology accordingly. Yet, herein lies the catch 22 of the situation we are in. Our global economy is a very brittle but robust economic engine. It can produce and is stable so long as we keep it maintained with the essentials. If you start talking “REAL” green in this circumstance you are going to disrupt the engine of growth that will produce the needed technology of renewables. So in effect the engine that will give you the technology that is essential to transition away from fossil fuels is also the engine that is killing the planet and leading human civilization on a trajectory of unsustainability. So it is clear “REAL” green will likely never catch on as a basis of a narrative of late stage capitalism and the liberal “individualistic” democratic structures that support globalism.
“REAL” green can influence the local environment. “FAKE” green is green technology with traditional status quo values. Most all of us greens are “FAKE” to some degree and don’t even know it. Not necessarily “FAKE” green by choice but by circumstance. A significant amount are delusional “cake and eat it” greens. “REAL” green is to be embraced relatively and moderately or it can destroy you. Small groups and localized communities can embrace it. Yet even at these micro levels this embrace must be in addition to the efforts of the global. The world has been delocalized and all locals are now dependent on the whole to varying degree so you can’t transcend this reality but you can coopt this status quo. It is difficult because of the competitiveness of this global system but when done properly you are outcompeting the status quo by applying nature based wisdom. Nature will support you. Wisdom in this case is not knowledge or technology to get ahead via status quo. It is knowledge to pick and choose what will offer a degree of sustainability and resilience with a system in general decline. It means looking longer term in some ways but also immediate with finding a way of life locally and as much as possible with less energy. This equates to less affluence in the current social narrative but with more planetary wisdom.
So this is about playing along with the status quo game of life as narrated to us but at the same time opting out where possible and establishing a new sub narrative. This is about yielding and avoiding where possible the destructiveness of the status quo relatively because you are stuck with it. It is also about acceptance that the current system is like the ice sheets earlier humans dealt with. They moved and adapted according to this reality. You can do the same in regards to our global civilization. The basis of this movement is localism but this does not mean abandonment of globalism. It just means value and investments are to be made locally and it may require some globalism to do that. This is also about the basis of meaning or myth. This is even a deeper conviction than the status quo social narrative delivers. In this case “REAL” green calls on participants to embrace the planet first and foremost. This does not require reinventing your higher power. If you do that you may just go into spiritual drift. It is about focusing on the land, water, and sky first this then flows to you, family, and community.
We can begin the changeover to the new world order enforced by the planet. You can do this now and you do this locally. You do this with less affluence but more planetary wisdom. This is about salvaging the best of the new and old and applying this to your hybrid local. It is about triaging out the destructive elements of the current civilization that are everywhere. In fact if you do nothing else this “REAL” green movement is about getting the deadwood out of your life that is the clutter of this late stage civilization. Once you clear many of these distractions away clearer thinking results.
So to wrap this up the transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is really about behavior and acceptance. At some point our way of life will hand off to the new way and when that happens there will be a shock of some kind. You can help manage that shock period of change. It is a process now and it is manageable but that could end abruptly at any time. It is the degree and duration of this transition you should be thinking about.
Davy on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 5:58 am
“I enjoyed your summary of the current decline of the US, Theedrich. You are the only one posting long comments here worth reading.”
We can also say people like you makato who spam the board with excessive amounts of noise. IMA, you are unable to carry a comment beyond a few sentences and most of the time it is just “slip slidin” LOL
Free Speech Message Board on Fri, 25th Jan 2019 6:01 am
Like slaves, Americans beg for their chains.
The elites tell Americans that they don’t need freedom and Americans nod their heads and agree that they don’t need freedom.
The 1% says that if vaping is not banned, Americans will get cancer.
The elites say that if flag-burning is not banned, Americans will have freedom.
The elites say that churches must be closed because of terrorism.
The elites say that protesting must be banned because protesters will break windows.
The ruling class says that newspapers must be closed because only the government can tell you the truth.
The elites say there must be subsidies or every company will go bankrupt.
The elites say that Americans must be forced to buy insurance or they will not get healthcare.
The 1% says that Americans must get food stamps or everyone will starve to death.
The ruling class say that everyone must be wiretapped, tortured, and groped or there will be terrorism.
The elites say that if withdrawing cash from your own bank account is not banned, Americans will buy drugs.
The elites say that if restaurants are not licensed, businesses would have a vested interest in selling poisoned food.
The elites say that if guns are not banned, Americans will be shot.
The elites say that if everyone does not give DNA samples to the government then little girls will be raped.
The elites say that if hammers are not banned, Americans will have their heads smashed in with hammers.
Americans are so enslaved now that patriots who warn about the dangers of tyranny will be slammed for criticizing the beloved overlords of Americans.
Every country has the government it deserves.