What Most Peak Oil Believers are Failing to Consider

True, oil production is likely to decline, causing oil prices to rise. But the reasons for the decline are critical to understand, if one wants to comprehend what is happening.

Many peak oil proponents will claim that it makes no difference why oil prices climb higher. The very fact of higher oil prices will vindicate their beliefs, according to the true believers and disciples. But again, clearly, they are wrong. If prices are high, but oil is plentiful, either the world will move on to cheaper forms of energy and fuel, or technology will be spurred by higher prices to achieve more efficient economies of production in the more difficult oil (and oil equivalent) fields.

If a nuclear renaissance does come about, demand for fossil fuels will decline precipitously across most of the world — except for specific applications as engine fuels. But at the rate that biomass and microbial fuels are progressing, it is likely that demand for oil and oil equivalent for fuel will begin to decline quickly after the year 2030.

Peak oil is a religion. And like most religions, the majority of followers do not have a clear understanding of exactly what it is they are supposed to believe. They only know that they believe it, and they are right, dad-blame-it! Meanwhile, the world keeps turning.

Al Fin Energy