What if Daniel Yergin is Wrong?

The obvious question then is this: What if Daniel Yergin is wrong? What if the very low probability he assigns to a nearby peak doesn’t stay neatly tucked beneath the tail of the bell curve of probabilities? What if peak oil–however disrespectful and unmannerly it may be–is about to arrive (or has already snuck in the back door and is waiting in the broom closet to surprise us)?
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