What future awaits Russia and the world after oil

Andrey Parshev, author of the scandalous bestsellers “Why Russia Isn’t America” and “Why is America Advancing,” is known for his boisterous remarks that initially seem absurd, but have the habit of coming true. Ten years ago, Russian politicians laughed at Parshev’s comment about the U.S. attacking Iraq. Similarly, economists were quick to joke when Parshev said the U.S. dollar would drastically lose value sometime around 2007.

Parshev’s new book will hit store shelves soon. With the working title “Winter of the Giants,” the book dissects how events will unfold in Russia and abroad when all the country’s oil has been extracted. KP invited Parshev to an Internet conference with our readers. The author addressed numerous issues – many are unrelated to hydrocarbons.
“Our oil will last until 2022″

Olga, Moscow:

– You’re addressing such a global issue. Maybe it’s really not worth it… Maybe there will be an oil crisis in several years…

– According to recent statistics from the Natural Resources Ministry, Russia’s known oil reserves should last until about 2022. Everything that is currently being extracted was discovered in the Soviet era. The entire country hasn’t been surveyed. We should begin geological surveillance immediately. The ministry’s projection doesn’t include oil resources that exist, whose volumes remain undetermined. So there is hope that their combined resources might add several decades onto our oil lifeline. But this still doesn’t solve the problem – sooner or later the oil will end. What energy source will we utilize to work and get around?

“Civilization will change dramatically”

Anonymous, Moscow:

– I can’t imagine how the world will survive if we suddenly run out of oil. Almost everything depends on it…

– Honestly, oil isn’t the most commonly used energy source in the world. Oil only accounts for 10-20 percent in most countries. Some nations are very dependent on oil, such as Iceland, which has a large fishing fleet. Russia is more dependent on the gas that warms its European regions. Moscow’s thermal stations run on natural gas. In its coal equivalent, about 80 million tons are used annually. Coal is still a major energy source in most countries. It plays an important role in the U.S., just as atomic energy does in France. Thus, civilization won’t face a major catastrophe when we run out of oil. But we’re in for major changes.

Sergey:

– Which resources will be in the highest demand in the years after oil? Water, uranium or maybe brainpower?

– The situation is rather straightforward. Russia will run out of uranium even before oil. Water is unlikely to be a major export for the country due to growing transport costs. Down the line, timber may become a renewable resource that partially substitutes hydrocarbons. We need to consider that our timber production is low despite Russia’s immense resources – around three cubic meters per person annually. This is four times less than Finland. The state reforestation program is vitally important. The trees we plant today will at best be ripe when oil runs out. Most likely, though, it will be much later.

KP.RU