‘We Live in an Era of High Energy Prices’

After rising for months, oil prices are now on the decline. SPIEGEL spoke with the head of the International Energy Agency about the future of oil prices, the growing importance of nuclear power and the quantity of oil left in the world.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Tanaka, do you know what your organization predicted the price of oil would be in 2010 in a study conducted three years ago?

Tanaka: No, I wasn’t in office at the time. Tell me.

SPIEGEL: It was $35 a barrel.

Tanaka: Then we must have been very wrong.

SPIEGEL: Why are all observers of the oil market, not just the International Energy Agency (IEA), so far off with their estimate of price developments?

Tanaka: The demand for crude oil has grown much more quickly than expected, especially in emerging markets like China and India. At the same time, on the demand side the producing countries have not expanded their production capacities sufficiently. The market has become extraordinarily tight as a result.

SPIEGEL: You’re making it a little too easy for yourself. The incorrect estimates are also based on the fact that there is little reliable data in this market, especially on oil production.

Spiegel