War Without End – Part V: Inexorable Forces

…Even if it wanted to, the U.S. would now find it exceedingly difficult to disentangle itself from the Middle-East. That die was really thrown back in the ’70s, when the U.S., faced with the domestic Hubbert’s Oil Peak, chose not to initiate a program of exploring alternative energy sources, or follow through on strict fuel efficiency standards. One could compare it to a patient with renal failure opting out of a transplant, and instead going on constant dialysis.

One of the most insightful thinkers in this area, who early on saw that the end of light sweet crude not only had economic consequences, but also political, and cultural ones, was Stirling Newberry. Prior to the domestic peak oil production, and subsequent decline, U.S. interests in the Middle-East were still economically important, but mainly for U.S. based oil companies. When the U.S. became a net importer of crude, it became a matter of national importance. It was also at the root of the trade and current account deficits that would plague the U.S. from then on.


The very landscape of the U.S. had been shaped in the heyday of the automobile, with sprawling suburbs that were clean, safe, and relatively cheap, with most conveniences drive to or drive through, with little in the way of public transport. This was made possible by cheap and plentiful petrol to ferry people to their place of employment. That structure, made even more dominant in the years since the ’70s also represents an enormous sunk cost in infrastructure, massive enough to stagger belief.

At this late date, with no replacement kidney in sight, one can’t just rip that dialysis tube out the arm of the patient without risking a complete system shutdown. Whether they would have preferred the past to have been otherwise or not, most everyone inside the Washington Beltway today, Democrat, or not, are painfully aware that overt imperialism is the obvious strategy today, not primarily to create a new reality on the ground, but to underpin the very status quo pre Bush that so many across the political spectrum long to return to.

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