War in the Caucasus and the Global Repositioning of …

…China, Germany, Russia and the US

A geopolitical convulsion measuring six points on the Richter scale is bound to produce aftershocks. The reverberations of the conflict in the Caucasus are beginning to be felt. We may be unwittingly bidding farewell to the “war on terror”. In any case, the international community has lost interest in Osama bin Laden.
As well-known Sovietologist Professor Stephen Cohen wrote recently, “Despite its diminished status following the Soviet breakup in 1991, Russia alone possesses weapons that can destroy the United States, a military-industrial complex nearly America’s equal in exporting arms … and the planet’s largest oil and natural gas reserves. It also remains the world’s largest territorial country, pivotally situated in the West and the East, at the crossroads of colliding civilizations, with strategic capabilities from Europe, Iran and other Middle East nations to North Korea, China, India, Afghanistan and even Latin America. All things considered, our national security may depend more on Russia than Russia’s does on us.”

Therefore, the US is not going to limit itself to Poland and the Czech Republic, but once it refines the technology of creating a missile defense deployment in Poland, it will be on the lookout for building more positioning areas, and for the next few years at least, Washington will have its hands full confronting Russia with dozens of positioning areas on its borders. The big ticket will be Ukraine’s induction, a country which already possesses advanced missile technologies of the Soviet era. In short, Washington’s preoccupations on Russia’s western and southwestern borders for the foreseeable future suit China perfectly well.

But China also has to weigh the fallouts on Russia’s future energy policies, which are of direct consequence to Beijing. As of now, Russia views Europe as the preferred market for its energy exports. This is despite Moscow paying lip service to Asian markets.

In real terms, Europe is competing with China for Russian energy supplies. This competition may begin to border on rivalry. According to the US Department of Energy, Europe’s demand for gas will rise by more than 50% by 2025. There is simply not enough gas going for Europe to sidestep Russian supplies. (Russia already meets 30% to 50% of Europe’s energy needs.)

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