Peak Oil is You
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Page added on January 31, 2006
NEW YORK (FORTUNE) – Trying to invest in ethanol and biofuels today is a bit like Internet investing in the ’90s. Most of the publicly traded companies are pint-sized crapshoots, and it’s not yet clear whether the early-to-the-game blue chips are pursuing the best strategies.
So there are going to be many, many more pets.coms than eBays in agrifuels. More Time Warners than Microsofts. Indeed, many of the venture capitalists bankrolling tomorrow’s ethanol IPOs (see “How to Beat the High Cost of Gasoline Forever!”) are the same folks who funded the ’90s dot.com debacle.
Okay, okay, you say. You know there’s risk, but you still want the lowdown on how small investors can get a piece of the ethanol action. One approach is agricultural futures — at least if you have a financial advisor well versed in commodities trading. Bill Nelson, a grains-market analyst for A.G. Edwards, thinks that over the next five years, ethanol-related demand could push corn prices from $2.05 a bushel to $2.50.
If futures trading isn’t your cup of tea, there are a handful of stocks with varying degrees of ethanol exposure. Probably the safest choice is Archer Daniels Midland, the agricultural giant whose growth is being turbo-charged by its ethanol business. (The stock has climbed 22 percent, to $28, since we recommended it in our 2006 Investor’s Guide.)
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