Up ahead: Conservation or $100 / barrel oil?

On the heels of oil’s push through $79 per barrel, with traders indicating that a move through $80 is likely, the elevated price of oil is once again placing itself on the table of concerns facing investors.

On Tuesday OPEC agreed to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day after production-increase advocates, including Saudi Arabia, successfully argued that continued elevated oil prices are likely to reduce global GDP growth. (Those elevated oil prices have already reduced U.S. GDP by one percentage point or more, depending on model projections.)


However, even more disconcerting for economists, analysts and consumers alike is the secular, long-term trend regarding oil: namely, that both OPEC and non-OPEC sources combined are unable to keep pace with rising demand.

The International Energy Agency expects global oil production in 2007 to total 84.43 million barrels per day (OPEC: 30.41 million barrels per day, Non-OPEC: 50.02 million barrels per day), while global consumption is expected to rise to 85.92 million barrels per day. The major factors in rising demand? Emerging market demand (primarily China) and gasoline-based / heating oil-based consumption in the United States. Consumption in Europe’s developed nations and other regions of the world also contribute to demand growth, but China and the U.S. lead the pack.

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