Uganda: The Politics of Oil And Energy

One argues that the more prosperous a nation the greater the chances that it will sustain democracy. A second hypothesis argues that autocracies that depend heavily on the exploitation of energy and mineral resources are less likely to make the transition to democracy. And a third hypothesis argues that without the sustained creation and mobilisation of social groups based primarily on economic interests, it is difficult for the benefits of economic development to become widespread.

Each of these hypotheses can be tested in present day Uganda.
When a closer examination of Uganda’s economic priorities is undertaken, it is clear that an enormous emphasis is being placed on the development of new energy resources. In light of the devastating effects of poor planning about 10 years ago, Uganda is in dire need of some type of effective energy policy.

However, unless the proper infrastructure is established, for example a truly autonomous body to run the new power station at Bujagali when and if it is completed, and a complete separation of interests by those in authority right now from anything to do with the companies involved in prospecting and drilling for oil in the Lake Albert region, much of the resources will go to financing an increasingly autocratic government.

Already the signs are there: massive jockeying for positions and claims and counter claims by senior government officials of plots to sideline them all point to attempts by these officials to be in a position to receive the benefits of the platter of oil and increased hydroelectric production. The need to “reward” losing NRM politicians so that they may find ways to remain financially afloat and also loyal members of the NRM as it looks for ways to entrench its position in power, all speak of the potential for an autocratic dominant one party system taking root, which is bankrolled by profits from oil and hydroelectricity.

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