Uganda is not ready to handle oil

For better or for worse, the oil find and its eventual exploitation will bring earth-shaking changes for Uganda.
By leveraging the oil revenues, we could see dramatic improvements in our roads, railways, electricity and telecommunications, easing the flow of goods and services and lowering the costs of doing business. Improvements in our education and health systems would also see dramatic improvements in our standard of living. This is the best case scenario.

In the worst case scenario, we can look forward to a collapse of all other productive sectors of the economy as a stronger shilling makes production unprofitable, making it cheaper to import rather than produce locally.
We may see widening income gaps with a small percentage of the population growing exponentially richer, while the majority descends into dehumaninsing poverty.
Whether we go down the first or second road will be determined by how much planning we put into preparing for this windfall.

On a macro scale, we are like a poor man who wins the lottery. Most lottery winners are unable to hold on to their new-found wealth for long – squandering it on the fast life and questionable assets.

The common denominator among these hapless losers is that whereas there was a plan for how to win the money – buying the lottery ticket, there was no thought placed on how to sustain the bonanza. Naturally-endowed nations more often than not suffer the fate of the lottery winner.

New Vision