Page added on May 5, 2008
Yesterday on the Connie Mack show, retired Oppenheimer fund manager Bill Wilby made a very simple but very smart observation about oil that resonated with me.
Essentially, he said that oil has made its way up to $120 all the while as the U.S. has struggled economically. Not to turn this into a debate about whether there is a recession or not (or how bad or whatever), but clearly the U.S. economy, which consumes about a quarter of the world’s oil supply, has not been going great guns – yet oil has rocketed higher.
Wilby says that when the U.S. does get back on track it could push oil up to $200 per barrel. I’m not terribly concerned about getting to the figure or not, but that big of a move in the next few years would, I have to think, create problems of a harsher magnitude than we think we have now.
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