U.S. must develop oil alternatives

The year was 1956, and the head of Shell Oil Companies’ research lab, M. King Hubbert, made a prediction that peak production of oil in the United States would occur in the year 1972. He was wrong. Peak oil production in the United States occurred in 1970.

Kenneth S. Deffeys in his 2005 book “Beyond Oil” has utilized the same techniques that Hubbert used, and predicted that global oil production would peak in late 2005. Whether the year is 2005 or 2010 at the latest, the fact is oil is a nonrenewable resource and global production will peak one day. There is a crisis because as production declines, demand continues to grow at a rapid rate.

Nearly midway through 2006, the situation is that global oil production is roughly 86 million barrels of oil per day, and global demand is nearly the same. Global demand continues to increase and the big question becomes whether global supply can keep up with demand.

The most optimistic forecasts say that supply can meet demand until roughly the year 2025. The most pessimistic say that we are close to decline or even in decline as you are reading this.

Statesman-Journal (Salem, OR)