Turbulence rocks flights of the future

Fears that high oil prices could make flying too expensive will be offset by more efficient aircraft

…But the optimistic industry view contrasts sharply with predictions by organisations such as British think tank Foresight, which believes that by 2055 the need to constrain carbon emissions and the high price of oil will make travel a luxury few are allowed or can afford. Even the most optimistic of its predictions portray aviation as a costly extravagance increasingly replaced by tele-presencing technology and rapid train systems.

The problem, says Foresight, is that existing aircraft technology already represents a mature combination of fuselage and engine design. The energy efficiency of jets has improved markedly since the introduction of the Comet in the 1950s and, despite estimates of a further 40 per cent efficiency improvement by 2050, this will be counterbalanced by emissions stemming from growth of up to 400 per cent.

The think tank notes there is at least one expert predicting the blended body (flying wing) designs being worked on could reduce fuel consumption by 65 per cent. Other than that, a 1998 report discussing the use of hydrogen in planes “is one of the very few options raised for reducing emissions in aviation”.

Not everyone is so pessimistic. Britain’s Rolls-Royce says advances in technology have reduced the environmental effect of engines by 75 per cent while increasing power by a factor of 50. But Rolls acknowledges the increasing focus of the environmental lobby, coupled to the rate of growth within the industry, calls for even more rapid and radical change. It points to a call by the Advisory Council for Aerospace Research in Europe for improvements at twice the historic pace.

The Australian