EXPLANATIONS, LEVEL OF: I always try to keep in mind my targeted audience. And that targeted audience is what I call “the educated general reader.” That may sound like an oxymoron, but I mean that I’m not writing for academics, or at least I’m not writing at that level of syntax and semantics. However, I am writing for people who are somewhat educated, whether by attending a high level of schooling, or by being self-educated. That means that I assume certain remarks do not require explanation. If I say “to be or not to be,” I’m not going to add “as was said by William Shakespeare, an English writer of the 15th and 16th century.” I’m joking (somewhat), but I’m pretty well convinced that we’re all living right in the middle of what is called the Great Dumbing Down. It’s a perpetual problem — how to focus clearly on one’s chosen audience. There’s no simple solution. Even to remind myself about the “common body of knowledge” doesn’t always work. Maybe what I think is “common” is not so regarded by other people — and vice versa.

GRIMNESS: I’m not sure how grim this book will seem. A piece of writing that is utterly depressing, and which offers no spark of hope or redemption, is likely to fail simply because the reader can’t take any more. Why pay for a book that will ruin one’s day, when a day can be ruined for free, with a little effort? But I feel rather annoyed at writers who seem to imply that if we all use a little good old American (or Canadian) know-how, then we can all pull through. Unfortunately that’s not the case. I think “doom ‘n’ gloom” writers are beginning to feel that they have safety in numbers, though, and are starting to reduce that false cheerfulness considerably with each new book.

Most of the topics in Tumbling Tide have been discussed with a fair number of people over the years, and these people are quite varied in their backgrounds. But usually at some point there seems to be that moment of True Confession — that one’s personal suspicions are grimmer than we commonly put into print. For example, in the article on “Peak Oil” at Wikipedia, there’s a footnote #150, which indicates that 6 years ago I was saying that several billion people will die of famine in this century. Such a remark does not appear in Tumbling Tide. My book also says that one hectare (2.47 acres) of arable land will support about 4 people. Yet the pioneer families on the Canadian prairies a hundred years ago were living on properties of at least 160 acres (virtually free), sometimes much more than that. Admittedly those large acreages were meant to grow crops and raise cattle for sale, not just to provide food for a single family, but they were still much larger than the 2.47 acres I’m talking about. It’s also the case that the present population, both of Canada and the world, is much larger than in those days, and that conversely there is much less arable land available.

POSSIBLE LOPSIDEDNESS: Some readers might think the book lurches off awkwardly in quite a different direction, rather dramatically, about 3 or 4 or 5 chapters before the end, getting very heavily into food-related issues. There’s also a stylistic issue at that point, in the fact that I’m switching to “direct address” — using the word “you” all over the place, whereas I had not done that before. I had thought, several times, of rewriting those chapters in such a way that I avoided direct address, but such a change doesn’t seem to work. The chapters are meant as instructions, and instructions involve commands, as is the case in a cookbook, or a manual of any sort. In fact one of the earlier manifestations of this book was called The Post-Oil Survival Manual.

POPULATION AND IMMIGRATION: Canadians suffer from the Pharaoh’s Curse: Pierre Trudeau’s ethnic liberalism, salvation through self-loathing. The general impression created by the government is that Canada is an “empty” land, just waiting to get filled up. In reality, at 35 million the population is now nearly three times greater than in 1950. Canada is tied only with Australia in having the highest immigration rate of all industrialized countries, yet we cannot find adequate employment for the people who already live here. Canada is also the only industrialized country that does not have a far-right political party. In the meantime, we watch the evening news on TV, we memorize our instructions, we turn off the TV, we go to bed. One day we will have to pay a terrible price.

3 Comments on "Tumbling Tide: Population, Petroleum, and Systemic Collapse"

J-Gav on Sun, 6th Oct 2013 2:11 pm 



Peter Goodchild isn’t known for empty happy-talk. Sort of like Guy McPherson in the States. If I can get my hands on a copy, I’d like to read his book.

rollin on Sun, 6th Oct 2013 5:19 pm 



The population explosion was inevitable, many specie go through it followed by a dramatic collapse in population. Only to be refilled again in the near future. Cycles and circles are part of life. Our technology and discoveries has skewed the system a bit, but I do not think it has removed us from the system. Not yet at least.
Brace for impact.

bobinget on Sun, 6th Oct 2013 6:28 pm 



Perhaps ‘Peak’ oil folks don’t really want to hear this but Alberta’s 2013 unemployment rate is 5%.
Saskatchewan’s beats with 4.5% The lowest unemployment level ever recorded, pre Trudeau, was in 1947 at 2.2 percent.

Forty million people live in California which BTW is fewer combined population of Shanghai, China’s second biggest city @ 23,019 million and Beijing @19 million. If everyone in the world’s second largest country moved to Toronto and Montreal, Canada would still never come close. China will fill another city with 17 million before I correct for spelling.

Living in the West Indies I always marveled that CBC
shortwave broadcast studios in Toronto were closer to Dominica then target *Nunavut ‘First Nations’ villages.
*Unemployment 13 percent.

The current Conservative government strikes me as anything but. Talk now is all about exporting natural gas instead of doing a bit of job creation value added.
Maybe it’s time to pipe some of that gas north?

If Japan, 128 million, gets flooded out will Canadians
and Australians admit 64 million Japanese each?

Where on earth will at least million Canadians, now living in Florida go as ocean levels rise?