TSR Raises Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Season

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College London, has increased its forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2007.

Based on current and projected climate signals, TSR’s March forecast predicts Atlantic basin and US landfalling hurricane activity to be about 75% above the 1950-2006 norm in 2007, rising from 60% above norm (TSR long-range forecast issued December 2006). This is the highest March forecast for activity in any year since the TSR replicated real-time forecasts started in 1984.


According to TSR, whose long-range outlooks for the exceptionally active 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons and active 2003 hurricane season proved accurate, it is 86% likely that U.S. landfalling hurricane activity in 2007 will be in the top one-third of years historically. The prediction includes: