Tropical Disturbance to Threaten US Gulf Energy Rigs

A tropical disturbance over the western Caribbean Sea is likely to become the first named tropical storm of the season and possibly even a weak hurricane, according to Jim Roullier, chief meteorologist at Planalytics.

“The formation of the first tropical system of the 2005 hurricane season appears likely over the next few days and will pose a threat to the Gulf rig system over the weekend,” he said.

He places the odds of the system becoming Tropical Storm Arlene at 65% and said that it is likely to move through the central Gulf, an area dotted with oil and gas rigs, before making landfall in Louisiana late Sunday. He said that the worst-case scenario was that it would develop into a weak hurricane, but he said widespread rig evacuations are unlikely.

“I don’t think it’s going to affect production (but) it’ll certainly generate a lot of hype on trading floors,” he said. “I can see people saying: ‘Oh boy, this is the start of another active season.’”

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