Transport Seen Surging, Damaging Climate – UN Draft

Surging use of cars and planes will push up greenhouse gas emissions in coming decades, making the transport sector a black spot in a fight against global warming, according to a draft UN report.

“Transport activity is expected to grow robustly over the next several decades,” according to a 101-page technical summary of a draft report by the UN climate panel, the most authoritative on threats from global warming.
The summary, to be issued on May 4 in Bangkok at a meeting of scientists and more than 100 governments, says efforts to curb emissions from transport “are faced with many barriers” despite options such as new engine technologies or biofuels.

Transport, mostly trucks and cars, accounted for 26 percent of total world energy use in 2004 and, barring a major shift, “projections foresee a continued growth in world transportation energy use by 2 percent a year, with energy use and carbon emissions about 80 percent above 2002 levels by 2030.”

In some nations such as the United States, Italy and Australia car ownership is already 5 to 8 per 10 inhabitants — 10 or 100 times more than in developing states.

The study projects biofuels could rise to 3 percent of total transport fuel by 2030, or to 10 percent if a penalty for emitting heat-trapping carbon dioxide were US$25 a tonne.

Measures such as tighter vehicle efficiency standards, lighter materials and better aerodynamics could double the fuel economy of new vehicles by 2030, roughly halving their emissions.

Planet Ark