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Transcending Collapse
Imagine, if you will, what it would be like to live in a society that had no word for ‘love’. How do you think the inability to express this crucial idea with a single, simple word would have on your relationships, on your life? What effect do you think it would have on your view of the world, on the trajectory of human social development?
Words are powerful. They shape the way we view reality, even how we construct it. They shape our capacity to feel, to experience. As someone distinctly aware of words’ power, I often reflect on how my own language patterns influence my life and my relationships. As someone who’s intimately aware of the many social, economic and environmental changes making themselves felt around the world, I’ve also considered how my language patterns influence my capacity to contribute positively in my community and adapt to changing life circumstances. As of late I’ve particularly considered a word tossed around throughout both alternative and mainstream media: ‘collapse’.
Perhaps some of us have been present when buildings or other structures collapsed, either due to lack of maintenance or because of controlled demolition. Many of us have watched recordings of the World Trade Center towers collapsing on news outlets large and small. The idea that man-made structures, so intricate in their design and solid in their construction, could suffer such a complete fall from glory reminds us of the impermanence that pervades our reality, even if we’d prefer it didn’t. Entropy rules.
Some archeologists and anthropologists apply the term ‘collapse’ within the context of human social development. Joseph Tainter’s classic academic text The Collapse of Complex Societies and Jared Diamond’s more popularly oriented book Collapse are well known examples, although there are many others. In the same way that the collapse of buildings represents the sudden, permanent expression of entropy relative to a physical structure, so too – in the eyes of these academics – can entropy express itself in the context of human social organization.
While there are certainly instances of societies succumbing to entropy, I’m uncomfortable using the term ‘collapse’ in the context of human societies. Why? First, because the descendants of many societies that anthropologists claim to have collapsed – including the Romans and the Mayans, among many others – still survive today. A particular social organization might have succumbed to entropy, but the members of that social organization didn’t go extinct. They simply shed an old model of social organization that had passed its prime in favor of a new model that better suited their needs. That which succumbed to entropy in this case was not something solid, something physical, but rather was a particular network of relationships that are not nearly as energy intensive to rebuild as concrete and steel. In my mind the difference between a collapsing building and a ‘collapsing’ society are so stark that the word collapse can’t hardly be applied to both.
Academic jargon is normally immaterial to most of us, except that over the past few decades a growing number of academics have forayed into public discourse and brought their unique application of the word ‘collapse’ with them. Today it’s common to hear pundits of all stripes warning of economic collapse, environmental collapse, climate collapse. Media pundits have a perfectly good reason to use the term collapse, one with no relationship to the accuracy of the term’s application. Collapse, when applied to a social or environmental system we depend on, generates the emotional reaction of fear. Like sex, fear sells. Discourse crafted strategically to inspire fear in the hearts of citizens and consumers can help a business or government sell products, services or even policies that would otherwise be rejected. Fear is a powerful political tool.
Telling a story that paints ‘collapse’ as a universal enemy can unite a society, but it also disempowers them, lowers them into a reactionary mindset where they may well acquiesce to disastrous policies that don’t really serve their interests. When a building begins to collapse, there isn’t much anyone can do about it but get out of the way. The collapse, once it begins, happens too quickly, is too unpredictable and gathers too much momentum to allow for an effective intervention. If people can be coerced to believe that their economy will ‘collapse’ unless X does Y, they may willingly absolve themselves of the capacity to intervene in defense of their own interests, handing their agency to a monolithic government or even corporate authority that’s all too happy to accept it. This sense of disempowerment feeds an even deeper sense of fear, leading to isolationist and ‘survivalist’ tendencies such as the abandoning of communities, stockpiling of guns, ammo, precious metals, food, etc.
I frequent a range of alternative media outlets, most of which use the term collapse liberally to push their agenda. I imagine their writers and producers do this deliberately to keep their sales figures and site visits up, but wonder if they’ve considered the broader implications of their language choice. Can educators and commentators with all the best of intentions cause broad social harm by couching their analyses and discourse within the context of collapse? Could talk of collapse lead to social turmoil that otherwise wouldn’t happen precisely because it pushes people towards reactionary – even antisocial – behavior?
I’m not naive. I know perfectly well that Business as Usual as I’ve experienced it over the course of my life is crumbling. This diatribe against collapse isn’t an attempt to deny or hide this reality. Rather, I’m convinced that promoting a need for radical, pervasive change isn’t best achieved by appealing to people’s fear. If this short essay achieves one thing, I hope it inspires people, particularly educators and commentators, to reconsider how they use language in their messages, particularly their decision to promote their ideas and ideals through the collapse meme. I predict the lineages of people alive 1,000 years from now will count among their ancestors people who transcended today’s collapse mythology and got to the real work of self and community development, inner work and adaptation. The future belongs to those who choose their language wisely so as not to prevent of the outcome they most desire.
40 Comments on "Transcending Collapse"
J-Gav on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 7:17 am
The author is probably correct to suggest that the word collapse is overused today and carries with it dire visions of total destruction. He himself uses the word “crumbling” though, which isn’t much different but no doubt somewhat less fraught with Mad Max images.
I often use the term “unraveling” as I think it allows for more nuances concerning ‘crunch time.’ To be more specific, I don’t believe everything will just fall apart from one day to the next. Institutional, social, political and commercial aspects of our culture may well follow varying patterns, paces and degrees of “unraveling,” so to put them under the same umbrella called ‘collapse’ doesn’t seem to be the best way of describing what has already begun to happen.
Davy on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 7:23 am
It is unfortunate collapse means so many things to so many different people. This is why I try to mix in correction, contraction, descent, and bifurcation. The fact is we are at the limits of growth facing diminishing returns with a population in serious overshoot to carrying capacity. Vital resources are under stress and we are now beyond individual species extinctions and on track with whole ecosystems collapse. Regionally we see this with the world’s oceans. The central theme of decent systematically is the inclusion of chaos randomness, dysfunction, and irrational outcomes. Any attempt at predictions, forecasts, and post collapse definitions are useless except around the edges. This is especially true with so many tipping points and their possible interactions. We can be sure we are in a new paradigm. Change is here now and the pace of this change will increase as the plateau of “Peak Everything” begins to turn over into a generalized decent. Let us hope it is a step down scenario with landings that are negotiable with adequate rebooting of critical infrastructure. The potential is there for a species ending collapse. This cannot be wished away with talk of hope, love, and the strength of the human spirit. I am a doomer/prepper but by nature not a collapsenik. A doomer/prepper has some optimism or otherwise what is the point of preparing?
rollin on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 9:30 am
The writer seems oblivious to the fact that in the past, the world was a larger and more natural place with a robust ecosystem. Basically there was a place to go to live when historical civilization collapsed. Now there are few places to go, if any, and the ecosystems are highly damaged. If the life support system is wrecked, collapse means death.
It’s ironic that the very efforts to preserve national status and “freedom” have built a world that entertains the possibility of collapse (or whatever word you want to substitute).
Not only collapse, but potential obliteration and/or radioactive dead regions (as the power plant’s storage fails).
At this point we have two major enemies. The people who will continue running civilization toward a dead end to fulfill the grand silicon dream, and those who want to reduce population through unnatural means.
Luckily the silicon dream is a fruitless one as far as developing a true intelligence. Still it is and will continue to be employed to control and dominate the population. This will of course feed BAU and run the ecology of the world into the dirt.
Those who want to reduce population will become frustrated with how long the natural means take and may introduce viral borne population controls or food borne population controls.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 9:48 am
Total collapse — of the global economy, of life as we have known it in the Western world and especially in America — WILL happen, in the truest sense of the word, as in a skyscraper having its base support blown up and rapidly (nearly instantly) crumbling in broken chunks into a smoking pile of debris. The reason why this will happen is because our “advanced” civilization is built upon the foundation of cheap, plentiful oil and other extracted resources. No more cheap plentiful oil or cheaply extracted resources, no more foundation. Remove or significantly weaken the foundation of any magnificent structure and what happens? Total, nearly instant collapse. The argument that the coming collapse will happen in slow motion, that there will be gradual steps that eventually take us to the bottom of the descent, has a lot of merit. Basically, that is what’s happening today, and has been happening for quite some time, especially since 2008. We have been on that step-by-step descent, except that those steps have been explained away, portrayed as that which they are not, propagandized — things like QE, fracking, lots of little and some medium-sized wars — these are all big and even huge steps down the ladder of descent toward total collapse, it is just difficult to understand that fact in the world of “fake reality” that we live in. The Global Economy and The Age Of Oil remain standing, gleaming in the sun, seemingly more powerful than ever. But if you look at the base upon which they are built, at the foundation that supports them, you will notice many stress cracks large and small, crumbling pieces of stone and mortar where solid concrete used to be. There will come a point in time when, with just one more crack large or small, the foundations that have long supported our way of life will reach a breaking point where they can no longer support the magnificent structures that have been built upon them. When that happens, implosion and near-instant collapse will occur. Its just physics, otherwise known as reality. The structures built upon those weakening foundations are too top-heavy, too rigid, to complex to just slowly dissolve over time when the foundations are lost. Collapse IS coming in the truest sense of the word — we’re just one or two cracks large or small away from that moment.
Don’t think so? Then why did Obama in 2012 sign an executive order authorizing for the first time in American history the U.S. Military to use force to preserve federal structures and assist civilian authorities and to put down riot — all on American soil? Why the sudden and rapid build-up of the NSA and total trashing of our “electronic right to privacy”? Why the secretive and yet steady militarization of our civilian police forces? Don’t you get it?! The government knows for a FACT what is coming, and they are preparing. And so should you be too, without wasting any time. If you don’t understand that grim reality, if you don’t “feel it” in your bones, if you don’t sometimes while deep in thought get a little burst of fear and anxiety thinking about what is heading our way fast, then you probably just don’t get it, and woe to you.
GregT on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 9:59 am
The words most commonly used by media pundits are the ‘economy’, and ‘growth’. Collapse is not even remotely on most peoples’ radars.
If more people were aware that the ‘economy’ is collapsing our life support systems, and that infinite growth in a finite environment is an impossibility that also leads to collapse, perhaps then we will collectively pull our heads out of the sand and rethink our relationship with our host planet.
Just because the author feels uncomfortable with the word collapse, does not make collapse itself any more comfortable, and it will not stop it from happening.
If anything, we need much stronger words, like starvation, chaos, and extinction. Watering down the message isn’t going to make people change their ways, until the collapse is fully upon us. By then, it will be too late to change our ways.
Pops on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 10:10 am
This is interesting. I’ve been here at PO.com since the begining and the discussion always wants to find a resolution between; society will collapse and society (technology really) will overcome.
It’s always the absolute position, oil production will fall and we’ll all die, lately lots of other reasons but it’s always: we’ll all die. LOL
The flip side is just as absolute, tech will save us and we’ll all live like Geo. Jetson, nothing changes except for the better, the economy keeps growing, the population, the food supply, everything.
I suppose the later is mostly a response to the former, but it takes a strange personality to continue posting amid constant derision, at least in my opinion.
But my point is, “collapse” denotes a finale, a resolution to the many problems we face, or at least to the many gripes and bellyaches we have regarding this or that aspect of modern life.
TEOTWAWKI is not an event, it is an ongoing process, you really only need to stay alive long enough and that becomes clear. The world as we know it is not going to come to a resolution like a made for TV movie or a religious parable where we see the villain ultimately defeated – it’s a lot more like a soap opera, it just drags on and on. LOL
JuanP on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 10:12 am
JGav, is human global civilization collapsing and unraveling at the same time, depending on your location and personal circumstances? What we are experiencing may feel like an unraveling to the more fortunate ones, but for the less lucky it is a veritable collapse.
JuanP on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 10:21 am
Davy, I am a prepper, but not an optimist. I prep, like you, because it is a hobby and a passion. I don’t believe there is a point to anything, other than for you and yours to survive and live as good a life as possible.
Life has no intrinsic purpose or meaning other than living, but we have the capacity to give imaginary purposes and meanings to our lives in infinite ways.
JuanP on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 10:33 am
rollin, I agree that using the past as a reference for the future must be done with many caveats.
I was reading yesterday about a new H1N1 flu virus strain made in an Illinois lab that is indestructible. They bred multiple generations, selecting in each those viruses that were resistant to the human inmunological system, until they created an H1N1 virus strain that is completely resistant to the human inmunological system. My guess is there are more than enough ways to wipe us out. Just feeding your conspiracy theories 😉
J-Gav on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 11:36 am
NR – “crumbling in broken chunks,” I would add: at near free-fall speed! My post was not meant to deny the possibility of a rapid disintegration of the socio-political-economic arrangements we have come to take for granted.
It was more to say that, knowing that, if you come out with both guns blazing in your communication with people around you who don’t see the urgency yet, you’re more likely to put them off than to ‘convert’ them. And that includes family and people close to you.
Nate Hagens has written: “Truth is a path with fewer friends.” That is no doubt correct but still, everyone is going to need SOME friends.
GregT – Agreed (mostly) but NOT watering down the message (to some extent) for many people will simply turn them off to any consideration of the predicament whatsoever. As for further hardening the message (à la McPherson) with ‘starvation’ and ‘extinction,’ (I’ve tried that too) my experience is this:
Most people (families) who’ve already got loads of shit on their plate (and who understand they’re soon going to be asked to beg for seconds!) will be reluctant to take that extra step. Towards what? Outright and total revolt against the present ‘system?’ Hmmm … Getting out of the system and building something else from the bottom-up? Great idea! But many don’t have the remotest possibility of pulling it off. Thus the fear factor, which paralyses a large number of people.
Pops – I take your point but wouldn’t you agree that the debate is today a little less cut-and-dried than before? I mean specifically the sharp, either-or dichotomy between ‘total doom guaranteed’ and ‘tech will save us.’
Eric Garza on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 11:59 am
Always fascinating to see where my posts end up. To ‘rollin on’, I’m quite well versed in how different the ecological integrity of today is from that seen thousands of years ago. As someone who spends a lot of time outdoors, I’m also quite familiar with how quickly a landscape can bounce back when people work with it rather than against it. The end result for me is a reasonable amount of optimism. You certainly don’t have to share it if you don’t want to.
To ‘Northwest Resident’, your vision of the future is quite bleak. I can’t imagine living that way. I hope it serves you well. Your post reminds me of the conversation I had with Michael Ruppert some years back after I saw him speak. He committed suicide earlier this year. Very sad, but not unexpected given his ‘understanding’ of where the future was headed.
JuanP on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 12:01 pm
JGav, your point about how to deliver the message and people’s reactions is right on target. Accepting collapse is a long process for most people and it can’t be pushed. I don’t talk about this with my relations, I gave up decades ago. And doing something to prepare is beyond many people’s capabilities, which produces paralyzing fear. Most people will not be ready when the SHTF.
I chose the path of truth over friends in my early childhood and never looked back. My only close friend in my local environment is my wife, my best friend, but you are right in that it will take a community to get by when things get tough.
JuanP on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 12:08 pm
I am so grateful that I don’t have to worry about my lineage one thousand years from today. Thanks to the fact that I had a Vasectomy and no children, I can leave it up to the author to contemplate such hefty issues 😉
Dave Thompson on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 12:19 pm
440 odd nuke power plants, no current plan of what to do about them. Just this in light of our current situation and we all know what is in store.
Pops on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 12:21 pm
J-G, you’ve been around here a while haven’t you? You remember how it was before the recession, lots of doomers were convinced something really bad was gonna happen. Not that bad things didn’t and not that they are through happening but Overnight Armageddon was not widespread.
Prior to that Y2k, way before that the ’70s stagflation and way before that my folks survived the depression and dust bowl and I was raised on it.
I met Howard Ruff sometime in the late ’70s. He was the original Gold Bug Collapsnik. I did some work on his house and he gave me a copy of his newsletter or book or something. His bit was that a hyperinflationary collapse was imminent and along with my upbringing I’ve had my eye out for collapse since.
That’s like 35 or 40 years ago now, and if I have learned one thing in that time, it’s that the only thing you can do is prepare as well as you can for anything to happen, including not much of anything.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 12:28 pm
Hi Eric — Bleak, maybe, but realistic, definitely. Civilizations rise and civilizations fall, with the survivors going through a transition period of variable length as they rebuild order and security into their lives based on the tools and resources they have at their disposal. We’ve emptied the aquifers, we’ve bulldozed the mountain tops to remove the coal, we’ve extracted all of the “easy” to get fossil fuels and minerals. What will humans living in the future have to work with as they deal with the toxic wastes, the depleted fisheries, the ocean dead zones and the greatly degraded environment that we have created for ourselves? What’s not bleak about that?
But I’m actually an unapologetic optimist. I believe a total crash and mass die-off is necessary for renewal of planet earth and the life it sustains. I believe that human survivors of the coming crash will be on the average much smarter, much more socially aware, much more cognizant of the footprint they leave on planet earth, and in general a few cuts above the average Joe that daily motors to McDs for his “nutrition”. I believe that humans living the self-sustaining lifestyle is a good thing, and a direction we ultimately need to be.
Don’t worry, I don’t have the emotional issues that Ruppert had. I’m a very happy guy with hope for the future, bleak in many aspects though it may be. The trick is, as always, facing up to reality and finding the silver lining in an otherwise dark cloud. I’ve done that, I’m still doing it, I’ve always done it.
Thanks for your feedback on my post.
Davy on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 12:43 pm
Pops “not much of anything will end soon but what will come is up to wide ranging debate. The difference now from then is limits of growth and diminishing returns especially with food and liquid fuels. I firmly believe these are the true tipping points at hand. Now, my time frame for the 1st decent is 3-9 years. It depends on if the financial system can hold together. There will be food and liquid fuel shortages if confidence is lost and a financial crisis ensues. We are in a new normal that does not fit nicely with the past.
Pops on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 1:06 pm
Davey, just sayin’ you even gotta take you own forecasts with a grain of salt, that is if you are doing anything other than just blathering online, which I know you are doing.
My forecast a dozen years ago was 8-10 years to the plateau, I was optimistic by 6-8 years but as an early adopter of the “Collapse Early & Beat The Rush” crowd I was able to get out without crashing.
My point is simply to prepare for a range of circumstances, that is if you are preparing at all. If a person is doing nothing, I couldn’t care any less regarding their opinion.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 1:27 pm
Pops — I believe that your earlier predictions of collapse were basically correct, based on the information that was available at the time. Who could have know at the time of your predictions the radical and unprecedented extents to which the financial/political elites would go to keep BAU limping along? I’m talking about QE and MASSIVE debt, unrestrained fraud and lies at the highest levels of finance, accounting tricks never before heard of, fracking and tar sands, lies and more lies to muster support for wars that would never have happened if people knew the truth, and much more — all intertwined with the steady relentless drumbeat of blatant propaganda to keep the masses calm, unknowing and as sheep being lead to the slaughter? Without all those things, expertly coordinated, collapse would almost certainly occurred on the time frame you predicted. In 2008 we came within a gnat’s hair distance of total economic collapse on a worldwide scale, from which it would have been nearly impossible to recover. Don’t blame yourself for not recognizing the bag of extreme dirty tricks that TPTB had at their disposal to keep BAU rattling and clanking along for another few years.
But here we are. It is obvious that the tricks employed to extend BAU for a few more years have served their purpose, and have lost their potency at the same time. Maybe TPTB have a few more tricks up their sleeve to extend and pretend another year or two or three. But when we see Obama authorizing US Military force on American soil, and we see the police forces mobilizing like battle ready units, and when we see so many signs that the end-game moves are being made — it is reasonable to predict that the shit is going to hit the fan pretty soon. Yeah, those predictions from ten years or so ago were off the mark, but now we know why. We are living on borrowed time and a borrowed dime.
2015. Oil/energy shortfalls. With all the security issues that you’d expect. Count on it. That’s my prediction, and I’m sticking with it.
rollin on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 1:37 pm
@Eric Garzaon
Nice dream Eric.
Davy on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 2:20 pm
True enough Pops, I was doing the same predictions you mentioned at the same time. I was amazed in 2008 TPTB pull it out of there ass like the did. I myself over prepared mentally and financially before that event. It cost me some money in unnecessary preparations. Yet, it was a good education. It also mellowed my prepped/doomer disposition. I am in a better place now mentally. My prep work is my life passion. I find prep efforts can be enjoyable if ones attitude adjust to less with less. IOW enjoy life fully now knowing SHTF at anytime yet hedge some with activities one enjoys. Prep work can be as little as learning to make beer or plowing with horses. NR and I have gone overboard with full blown prep but not everyone has to do that. We do it because we love doing it. With the side benefit of a degree of security “maybe”. Do something folks if nothing else just acknowledge being prepared is a good policy for anything from earthquakes, tornados, to hurricanes. My biggest recommendation is have some food security. That would be the most important advice I can give.
J-Gav on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 2:54 pm
Pops – Yes I have, and yes I’ve watched and read for many years.
Doesn’t make me any sort of God-like prognosticator by a long shot. But I don’t see “not much of anything happening” over the coming 2-8 years. Call it gut-feeling or whatever you will – too many things are coming to a head for it to be otherwise IMHO. Those who repeat “Prepare, prepare, prepare” are in my view intelligent people. Exactly what that means is of course not the same thing for everybody, given the huge variance in individual and collective situations.
NR – Good sense of humor: “I’m actually an unapologetic optimist, etc.” I see posters here who are much more likely to get through the first up-coming bottleneck than I am, and you are one of them (as well as Makati and Davy, even though they pretend not to agree on anything).
Makes me a little jealous, yeah, but I do have my own plan ready for when (if) a possibility for implementation presents itself (euh, money does matter!) Again, bon courage and good luck to all of you who are already working hard towards a more system-independent existence.
Pops on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 3:57 pm
NWR, It isn’t that I give your scenario zero probability, quite the opposite, but it is just one of a universe of possibilities. I’m not trying to dissuade you from whatever it is you’re doing, way back when I started the Planning Forum here my motto ways “make a plan and work it.” It still is, best of luck to you.
I think the best one can do is address the things that make them anxious. I cashed out of CA real estate in ’04 to take advantage of the bubble equity and run away from CA cost of living. We bought a farm in the Ozarks but the farm wasn’t the big thing, it’s the cashing out part that was the most important. A wad of guns or a big garden on a mortgaged lot isn’t much of a plan if you can’t make the rent.
Today I focus on lifestyle rather than timeline. I’m a lot like Davey in that I’m interested in doing things that don’t involve jet skis or cruise liners, LOL. It’s a trade off, lower overhead is good, lowering consumption is hard, we’re all pretty spoiled. But we’ve been successful in getting small. We owe nothing and make less than a quarter of what I did a dozen years ago – we could get by on a pittance if need be without a large change in lifestyle.
Like J-G, people have a lot of fear. Perhaps years of trying to become a little self sufficient has made me forget what it was like. As a Left-Winger, Bushco skeered me as much as O skeers the right – and the fact that O has carried on with many of the scariest portions of the Bush legacy is no help. The clubhouse where the world’s central bankers hobnob released a news item about the “strange disconnect of the world markets from the fundamentals.” Not exactly the normal PR from the Chamber of Commerce, LOL.
But really, the escalation of rhetoric in the US today is probably the scariest thing of all for me, now. It’s as if the Limbaugh Syndrome (sort of like Tourettes, but intentional) has infected US society and we just can’t wait to go all jihad on each other.
Steve on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 4:02 pm
Careful Pops…..they will take what optimism you have left and try to ladle it over and over with their gravy of pessimism….I would have to say myself if there was not some sort of collapse…I would be disappointed as I think the current system is sh$$….and will no doubt lead to collapse albeit a very slow one….
J-Gav on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 4:53 pm
Pops – Oh no! There seems to be some misunderstanding here. If J-G means me, believe me I don’t live in fear, but many people do. Quite the contrary. Every waking day is a joyous occasion to my way of approaching life. Which doesn’t mean I have no time to ponder the situations of those less privileged than myself.
Pops on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 6:27 pm
Sorry, should have been “Like JG says …”
clifman on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 7:44 pm
Wow. Meaty. So much to respond to here. I’ll just wonder who of the author and commenters has read Wm. Catton’s ‘Overshoot’? As has been pointed out, this is different than the Romans or the Mayans or whomever else. Three reasons (at least). One – it’s global this time, meaning nowhere else to go, or unscathed territory from which future resource-dependent empires might grow. Two – as Catton pts. out, Homo Collossus is utterly dependent upon fossil fuels, which happen to be finite. Three – the planet is trashed. While ‘landscapes’ may recover if given a chance, ecosystems cannot, in any meaningful time frame, when species are gone and Goldilocks conditions have been sent packing. Here’s a simple example. I became environmentally aware because I grew up as an Adirondack trout fisherman, and began to see around 1980 how the burning of coal was destroying trout habitat. Then, it was acid rain (CAA cut SO2 and slowed that damage), now it is climate change. Trout need water that stays below 70F year round. That habitat is quickly departing the eastern US, including the ‘pristine’ Adirondacks. That’s at about 1C of global temp rise. We have 2-3 more baked in, and probably 2-3 more coming beyond that. Ecosystems are toast. The economy will crash from declining FF right into the teeth of rapid climate destabilisation. Having a ‘greener’ backyard in suburbia ain’t gonna reverse that trend. Collapse. Count on it.
steve on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 7:57 pm
what I don’t understand is how you talk about how there will be no more BAU and then you say how people should stay out of debt etc…well in a collapse where people are barley being fed or dying of starvation do you really think a bank will still exist? Just seems like a disconnect…made it is a comforting thing to think If I play by the rules I can still get by…
GregT on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 9:08 pm
clifman,
My ‘awakening’ also began with my experiences as a river fisherman. I understand where you are coming from.
Last years salmon returns in the Fraser river were very healthy. Unfortunately, the fish held off running the river due to water temperatures 6 degrees C above normal. This will have a detrimental impact on fish stocks 3 years from now. Fish stocks that are already a tiny percentage of what they were historically. Sadly, most people have no idea as to the importance of spawning salmon to the ecosystem, and the entire food chain.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 9:19 pm
J-Gav, I’ll take that as your personal guarantee that I’m going to make it through the coming bottleneck. Thanks man!
Pops, I hear and agree with all you say. You’re right, there are a multitude of possibilities on how all this is going to go down. As for me, I woke up to the reality of peak oil and all its consequences less than one year ago. It was like a lightning bolt that struck me, a deep intuitive realization that a dark shit storm is heading our way. I am acting on my intuition, and on all the many facts that I have gathered since that first realization which confirm my intuition. If 2015 ain’t it, fantastic! But I’m pretty sure it is, all signals that I see are pointing that way, and I’m going to be ready. Like I say, if it isn’t 2015, that’s good because I’ve got a great life right now. But if it is 2015, I’m going to be psychologically and physically and strategically prepared. I know you will be too. Let’s see what happens — it isn’t that far away.
Makati1 on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 11:03 pm
WOW! Lots of ideas here…
And then there are the GMO seeds being practically forced on countries everywhere. What happens when the powers-that-be decide to pull the plug on most of the world and not sell any new seeds some year? The old seeds were sold off because many of the GMO corporations don’t allow saving their seed for the next crop (sometimes, by law). The planters have to buy new seed every year.
How many billion would starve the year the GMO corporations didn’t sell new seeds? Even in the US, how many crops are seeded by Big Ag? Are YOU sure YOU are not on that list to be exterminated? Think about it.
Joe Clarkson on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 11:05 pm
A copy of my comment regarding the same post on Resiliance.org
“Collapse:
to fall or cave in; crumble suddenly: The roof collapsed and buried the crowd.
to break down; come to nothing; fail: Despite all their efforts the peace talks collapsed.”
Seems like the appropriate word to me.
If Eric Garza doesn’t like the word, despite its obvious applicability to anything that might rapidly “succumb to entropy”, why doesn’t he offer an alternative?
Makati1 on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 11:21 pm
J-Gav, I too live each day in the way I always have. I enjoy all that life has to offer. The fact that the collapse is in sight means only that I should prepare to ease into it at my own pace, until it happens. Davy thinks I am going to starve or get killed in the riots here. He should look in the mirror at his own situation. I feel better positioned here than I ever would be back in PA.
So, I look at sunrises and sunsets with equal appreciation. I go about my daily routines as always. We have a word for 2013 posted on the wall as we go out the door. The word is “Matipid”, the Tagalog word for frugal, a common habit among the people here. I will continue to invest in our farm and hand tools and other post collapse items. I will continue to go back to the States for the next few years and visit family. And I will continue to put my two cents into the discussions here, for your consideration.
No one on here is likely to change their view of the situation much because of the thoughts of others here, but it keeps us thinking about possibilities. A kind of online transition community. Thanks!
Makati1 on Thu, 3rd Jul 2014 11:22 pm
Ooops! “… a word for 2014 …”
J-Gav on Fri, 4th Jul 2014 3:21 am
NR
Sure! Signed and sealed … but not yet delivered …
J-Gav on Fri, 4th Jul 2014 3:27 am
GregT – Amazing isn’t it, just how important salmon are to that whole ecosystem! I had no idea until I saw a documentary on precisely that subject. Even the health of the forest depends on them.
Davy on Fri, 4th Jul 2014 6:32 am
Mak, come on, spare me the “Davy thinks I am going to starve or get killed in the riots here” If you insist on claiming I am going to starve in the US by your obsessive character assassinations of the US then I will point out obvious issues you face in the Philippians. Reality says we both face huge challenges. Your mentality is the “US is doomed and we are fine here in the P’s”. What kind of friggin thinking is that? Sounds Polyanna P’s and a US misanthrope. I have repeatedly said if you tone down your loose Anti-American rhetoric and East Asia nirvana we could get along. Like Gav says we agree on most things.
Pops on Fri, 4th Jul 2014 7:17 am
Steve, “do you really think a bank will still exist?”
Even in the vanishingly rare chance that “collapse” is overnight armageddon with not a shred of society left and brain sucking zombies are remembered fondly like Disney Princesses – believe me when I tell you that there will still be debt collectors. If you need proof, imagine yourself at the end of your financial rope with the only one little note payment between you and hunger, are you simply going to forgive that debt?
And that is in the extremely rare scenario that everything – everything – collapses overnight. I don’t believe that will happen. That’s one of the problems about coming up with a favorite scenario to plan for rather than just trying to be resilient in a general sense. “My landlord will starve in a week or two so I won’t need to worry about rent” is not really a plan, odds are that your landlord will outlive you and collect from your estate. LOL
The System is self organizing and will survive until the bitter end. It is a basic rule that the baker doesn’t bake to feed you, he bakes to feed himself. The upshot is that the system will self perpetuate down to the last. If you are going to only plan for that bitter end to happen instantaneously and have no foreshocks then I’m thinking that is just wishful thinking, or maybe rationalization.
In the depression the system didn’t fail, there were still judges and sheriffs auctions and jails and congressmen and retail stores and county clerks. What failed was jobs. The ability to pay for stuff. People who couldn’t pay were put off their land and got really thin. When I think about a crash from whatever cause, I think about my inability to pay for stuff, that’s what I prep for, losing my income.
Sounds trite and not really fun at all but all the cool apple cider presses, black plastic rifles and walking plows in the world won’t help you if at root you are dependent on a job and armageddon comes in a pink slip.
Davy on Fri, 4th Jul 2014 7:39 am
Pops, I was on my tractor yesterday burning brush piles and thinking about collapse dynamics. You know there will always be entrepreneurs who will look to make a dollar. Like you say Pops bakers will be baking bread for themselves if they can get flour and others to get money for meat. Economic activity will continue. It is those folks that rely on existence in the unsupported BAU world of car to a job, to grocery store, and to home having no means of production of survival items that will suffer. Unfortunately this is a large segment of the population but even many of them will manage to produce when push comes to shove. It is going to be ugly if things collapse but there will be economic activity all the way down the energy gradient we will be riding. The big question is where and when will be the reboot to stability and functioning economic activity across the board. When will the free fall end?
bobinget on Sun, 6th Jul 2014 2:38 pm
Convinced we were all going to die (nuclear bombs) in the 1950’s, gave us what we now recall as “The Sixties”.
Just saying ‘the nineties’ are going to be the sixties,
‘upside down’ turned out not to live up to expectations.
Now it turns out, for the first time in human history we, well, many– can see red exits signs flashing.
In a remarkably short period of geological time, a few hundred years, the world gets turned up-side down and inside out. In a flash humans released stored GHG’s that took many millions, even a billion years to collect. It must take some mighty powerful ignorance not to understand consequences. It’s said most folks in America believe in some kind of ‘hereafter’, could this be the reason we have failed to even face up to proven science? Maybe, becoming involved elsewhere compartmentalizes dread. Watching sports seems to be gaining popularity for some reason.
Babies born today will ‘enjoy’ entirely different
lives then their parents. Does anyone here doubt this?
Mass migrations, born of violence and poverty, is becoming epidemic. There are at this moment over five million war refugees across the Mideast.
Sudan, CAR put another million humans at risk of starvation.
In North America:
Mexicans are returning home now that agricultural conditions, local resentment, so called conservative politics make finding steady work too difficult. Tens of thousands of Central American families are sending children El Norte, not for jobs but safety. Parents know their kids will be housed, fed and safe in INS detention.
Thirty thousand hungry economic refugees make dangerous sea journeys to Europe… Every Week.
The Australian Navy intercepts so many migrants daily they know not where to keep them.. Just imagine the kind of conditions forcing a person to attempt any self conducted voyage to Australia, from anywhere!
Common knowledge, news cycles, blame religious extremists for increased Mideast violence. In fact
we have ALWAYS had religious extremists. Why this explosion now? Too many people? More then a few
cities in China are bigger then El Lay and NYC combined. How do these people manage? Does one religious faction or another in NYC try to kill as many of their opposite number daily? (they don’t)
Why not? When a single man immolated himself on the Washington Mall it helped end the Vietnam disaster.
Today suicide bombers can’t get ink unless they
take hundreds along.
I’ll dare say we are spending more on airport security
then AGW mitigation.