Tipping Elements in the Earth System: How Stable Is the Contemporary Environment

ScienceDaily (Jan. 6, 2010)

This Special Feature was designed and edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). It is meant to make a major contribution to the emerging field of sustainability science. The authors involved analyse altogether eight Earth System components. Three of them, the biggest dust source on our planet, oceanic biogeochemical cycles, and marine methane hydrates, are discussed in depth as potential tipping elements for the first time ever.

“It is the cardinal question of Earth System and sustainability science whether global warming actually triggers singular transformations of crucial components of the planetary machinery,” says Schellnhuber. Singular transformations — as opposed to smooth linear and nonlinear ones — would dramatically alter the environment in which human civilisations have developed and thrived over many millennia. “Currently, the climate system still operates in the Holocene mode, but the research presented here underlines that a rise of the global mean temperature beyond two degrees Celsius might push the world into singular-change terrain and therefore needs to be avoided,” Schellnhuber adds.

Science Daily