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Page added on August 13, 2023

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Thinking about a world of scarcity

General Ideas

It has now become more fashionable to talk about shortages. Computer chips have been in shortage and then in glut in the last few years. Natural gas was acutely in shortage in Europe after the war in Ukraine and pipeline sabotage brought supplies from Russia down to a trickle. Then, heroic efforts at conservation and in obtaining liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments to Europe led to a dramatic reduction in price. But last week just the potential for labor strikes among LNG workers in Australia, a major LNG exporter, sent the European price spiking again.

The world seemed so well supplied with everything in the previous decade that the shortages of this decade seem shocking to those with memories that do not extend further back than 2010.

But in what is actually recent memory, we have examples. It was the mid-2000s that brought us spiking food prices. Now they are rising again. It also brought us the highest price ever for a barrel of oil. Now oil prices are elevated again. Metals prices rose. Now they are again.

The general view is that shortages and high prices are the cure for shortages and high prices. And, there is some truth in that because high prices incentivize more people to produce more of the stuff that carries a high price. But when prices are rising in general it is difficult for miners, growers and manufacturers to address prices everywhere at once. There is only so much capital for investment. That is why eras of rising prices can go on for some time before they are resolved.

But what if some critical resources won’t yield to the logic of modern economics? What if that logic only works in a world of growing extraction of cheap resources? What if the price of extracting ever leaner grades of metals, harvesting ever more grains and fiber from farm fields losing topsoil that is already saturated with as much fertilizer as plants can absorb, pumping ever more water from falling water tables and dwindling streams and reservoirs—what if we simply cannot afford all this on a wide scale? The answer is that extraction somewhere will fail to keep pace with what people would otherwise demand, and then standards of living would fall.

I return to helium as a harbinger of what is unfolding. Back in 2009 I suggested that the world was heading toward an acute helium shortage. Granted, the world helium market was dominated at the time by the U.S. government and its Federal Helium Program which gathered the richest sources of helium in the world. The government decided in the 1920s that helium was such a critical resource that it would manage it for national security reasons. (For why it’s hard to find substitutes for helium see my 2009 piece.) Then in 1996 the U.S. Congress decided the federal government should get out of the helium business and let the marketplace set prices and seek out new supplies.

The process of exiting the helium market is near completion. The government has stopped selling helium. Now, the supposed rush is on among private companies to find and produce the helium the world needs. There are companies now doing that.

Prices of helium are spiking and helium is getting harder to secure in the meantime. The problem is so acute that scientists who need helium for all kinds of research are having a hard time getting it. And some are calling for the U.S. government to remain in the helium business in order to assure supplies are available for research facilities including its own.

Another example of an emerging pattern is the rice market. In many countries, the supplies of basic foodstuffs are managed by governments to help avoid food shortages. In Asia rice prices are at or near all time highs. India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has already instituted some restrictions on the export of rice. The fear is that other countries will follow. The reason is simple: There is no better way to insure that the ruling party will be thrown out of office than food shortages. Keeping more food at home keeps prices down.

Part of the reason for rice’s production woes is a strong El Nino negatively affecting weather for Asian growers. And the strong El Nino is starting when global ocean temperatures are already high, meaning the effect of the El Nino will be greatly enhanced by climate change compared to previous decades.

Helium and rice are two example of shortages that cannot simply be addressed by “the market.” (I put “the market” in quotes because there are very few true free markets. Most markets are carefully managed by the largest players.) A combination of government and private action is being coordinated for goals that take social priorities into account as is the case with rice or as is being requested in the case of helium.

Focusing on profitability alone will lead to rampant, accelerated pressures on resources—which is how we got to where we are today. More of the same won’t solve the long-term problems related to limits on key resources.

Kurt Cobb is a freelance writer and communications consultant who writes frequently about energy and environment. His work has appeared in The Christian Science Monitor, Resilience, Common Dreams, Naked Capitalism, Le Monde Diplomatique, Oilprice.com, OilVoice, TalkMarkets, Investing.com, Business Insider and many other places. He is the author of an oil-themed novel entitled Prelude and has a widely followed blog called Resource Insights. He can be contacted at kurtcobb2001@yahoo.com.

 

Resource Insights by Kurt Cobb



761 Comments on "Thinking about a world of scarcity"

  1. SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE RICH MEN NORTH OF RICHMOND TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR on Sat, 19th Aug 2023 3:08 pm 

    guess what happens when elite whitey supertard chelsea perry missouri MUZZ-19 herself with reckless abandonment

    MUZZ-19 has semen from DROPOUT-19 in it he mixes it in his basement using empty paint buckets

    it’s irresponsible to inject MUZZ-19

  2. eee on Sat, 19th Aug 2023 3:55 pm 

    Did I talk about the brain freeze that comes with open brain surgery. Sometime I prefer to go the grocery store after 7:00 PM because there is less traffic. Just in case of brain slow down or freeze.

    I wanted to go to Montreal to do a survey on the long necks and face moved forward. I thought it was not safe, so I abandoned the idea.

    The chemical unbalance and moods swings that come with body update. You will adore that.

  3. eee on Sat, 19th Aug 2023 7:23 pm 

    It so quiet. I feel like I am about to leave earth. It feels like I am between two dimensions in transition to somewhere else.

  4. eee on Sat, 19th Aug 2023 7:26 pm 

    I am back in bed a again. I was able to go groceries shopping and eat a home made poutine, It feel like I am going to leave earth or die. Either I have already won, you have already lost.

  5. eee on Sat, 19th Aug 2023 7:31 pm 

    You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked. US made a mistake to meet with South Korean and Japan prime minister.

  6. SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE RICH MEN NORTH OF RICHMOND TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR the convid-19 is coming back along with face diapering and MUZZ-19 mandate on Sat, 19th Aug 2023 9:06 pm 

    the reason i urged immediate amputation of elite whitey supertard thunderf00t back in 3/2020 is because this supertard went on self imposed quarantine for convid-19 when it first started and i said it smells

    supertards please change ur undies after 5 weeks to prevent spread of convid-19

    please feel at ease among friends, we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here

  7. the reason i urged immediate amputation of elite whitey supertard thunderf00t back in 3/2020 is because this supertard went on self imposed quarantine for convid-19 when it first started and i said it smells on Sat, 19th Aug 2023 9:13 pm 

    SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE RICH MEN NORTH OF RICHMOND TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR the convid-19 is coming back along with face diapering and MUZZ-19 mandate

    supertards please change ur undies after 5 weeks to prevent spread of convid-19

    please feel at ease among friends, we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here

  8. most supertards who used to prost here MUZZ-19 theselves with reckless abandonment and now theyre not at this truck stop but they are at SAINT PETERS on Sat, 19th Aug 2023 9:15 pm 

    PO used to be 10x busier

    supertards please dont MUZZ-19 with reckless abandonment

    supertards please change ur undies after 5 weeks to prevent spread of convid-19

    please feel at ease among friends, we’re all lovers of supremacist muzzies here

  9. my neighbor got big testicles cuz we see this d00d everyday we ate riiiiiiibbbbbs with this d00d and didnt have a clue get that girl out of that house she simpy has to get out so i opened the door cant get in that way my body dont fit in the on Sat, 19th Aug 2023 9:18 pm 

    door only your hand

    supertards please dont MUZZ-19 with reckless abandonment

  10. supertards were friends and lovers of supremacist muzies On This Day... Aug 19, 2011: Jamrud, Pakistan A teenage suicide bomber creates a mess during prayer time at a rival mosque: 48 Killed on Sat, 19th Aug 2023 11:00 pm 

    SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE RICH MEN NORTH OF RICHMOND TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR the convid-19 is coming back along with face diapering and MUZZ-19 mandate

  11. supertards were friends and lovers (of supremacist muzies) On This Day... Aug 19, 2022: Germany Bavaria 1 0 An asylum seeker stabs a man to death at a pizzaria for 'insulting Islam.' on Sat, 19th Aug 2023 11:31 pm 

    SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE RICH MEN NORTH OF RICHMOND TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR the convid-19 is coming back along with face diapering and MUZZ-19 mandate

  12. eee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 2:28 am 

    Je suis prêt à quitter la planète n’importe quand, maintenant ca serait le moment parfait. I am ready to leave earth, anytime you want.

    I am ready to go, etheir way through death or body update, I don’t want to be on earth, let’s do it now

  13. supertards were friends because were lovers (of supremacist muzies) On This Day... Aug 20, 2020: Nigeria Tse-Aspera 5 8 Five villagers are murdered by Muslim militants, including one beheading on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 5:15 am 

    my neighbor got big testicles cuz we see this d00d everyday we ate riiiiiiibbbbbs with this d00d and didnt have a clue get that girl out of that house she simpy has to get out so i opened the door cant get in that way my body dont fit in the door only your hand

  14. eee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 9:36 am 

    I am ready to leave earth, you have my authorization, let’s do it today while I sleep.

    Let’s move forward with the extraction, 10-4 and out.

  15. نحن أصدقاء Supertards لأننا عشاق (من أدوات التفوق) on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 10:21 am 

    my neighbor got big testicles cuz we see this d00d everyday we ate riiiiiiibbbbbs with this d00d and didnt have a clue get that girl out of that house she simpy has to get out so i opened the door cant get in that way my body dont fit in the door only your hand

  16. حصلت جارتي على خصيتين كبيرة لأننا نرى هذا D00D كل يوم نأكله RIIIIIIIIن ذلك المنزل الذي يجب أن تخرج الباب فقط يدك on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 12:16 pm 

    SHOCKER: ANAL PROLAPSE CAPTURE RICH MEN NORTH OF RICHMOND TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR TMFINR the convid-19 is coming back along with face diapering and MUZZ-19 mandate

  17. eee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 12:28 pm 

    The whole words stay here and die. I have already won, you have already lost. I will destroyed your fucking worthless planet and burn you alive, dumb mother fucker.

    Yes whore we also going to decapitate these fuckers and suspends their head in the air 20 feet above the ground.

  18. حصلت جارتي على خصيتين كبيرة لأننا نرى on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 12:29 pm 

    THAT MFER IS NOT REAL

  19. eeee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 12:37 pm 

    The air, water, wind, and fire are mine and I will use them to destroy head and kill whole population of earth. You cannot do anything against me, other then die.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vsVCeqqY6k

  20. eee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 12:40 pm 

    I piss and shit on all of you. Fuck your useless earth.

  21. eee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 2:41 pm 

    My stupid useless smelly whore wants sex. I need to do my marital duties.

  22. eee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 4:51 pm 

    I am ready to leave earth, let’s do it now.

  23. eee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 5:28 pm 

    Once you allow mass suffrage, this is inevitable. It’s remarkable how Americans in the early 20th century fell for it. Here they were, with all the power on earth, likely the best-educated generation of human beings in man’s history, with virtually unlimited access to earth’s resources unleashed by the industrial revolution, and no reason to allow the plebes a place at the table. But they did it anyway. Here, ladies, here’s the votes. Here, sharecroppers, here’s the vote. Here, illiterate immigrants, here’s the vote. We’ll trust you to make the right decisions for yourselves and for all of us.

    What did they think would happen once the Army of Resentment was given a place at the table? They outnumber you 10,000,000:1.

    Now we’re about to see a cascade of failures of complex systems across the West over the next two decades, and the lights will go out for everyone, eventually. These fools who think they can live out life in a cave two miles below the surface will produce mutants by the third generation; man did not evolve to live like a mole, no matter how wealthy the mole.

    I stole this from a comment, It is not from me but the guy gets it. Once you start to use your cell phone as a identification card, you know you fucked your civilization, It is easier to do banking on a cell phone then on the internet.

    Only people that will leave earth will live.

  24. eee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 8:28 pm 

    This is the most important part:

    Now we’re about to see a cascade of failures of complex systems across the West over the next two decades, and the lights will go out for everyone, eventually. These fools who think they can live out life in a cave two miles below the surface will produce mutants by the third generation; man did not evolve to live like a mole, no matter how wealthy the mole.

    I gave multiples example of that. Cell phone as an identification card is one of them, using China as the manufacturing hub of the world is another point of failure, worship of female values instead of male value is another point of failure.

    Only people that will leave earth will live.

  25. eee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 9:53 pm 

    I was feeling good and not disoriented. So I went downstairs and eat an overstuff pizza. I am back in bed and I feel again disoriented. I would not be surprised that one of these days I will leave earth. You stay on earth you die. Only people that will leave earth will live.

  26. eee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 10:10 pm 

    The visit of Japan and South Korea prime ministers the US has accelerated things. I will say it again this was a bad idea. You not killing all the Jews of the world , have moved things forward, You are just idiots, you deserve to die on earht.

  27. eee on Sun, 20th Aug 2023 10:13 pm 

    I am good to go, you have my authorization, lets get th fuck out of here

  28. eee on Mon, 21st Aug 2023 2:29 am 

    Women are not real. They are some kind of primitive flesh robot. No good for anything.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaVY107JTJk

  29. eee on Mon, 21st Aug 2023 2:41 am 

    It is more and less over for earth population and Lucifer. Only the people that will leave earth will live. It is more and less over. I said that many time, earth is an execution chamber made to trap and kill the bad souls that GOD hates.

    Again Only the people that will leave earth will live.

  30. eee on Mon, 21st Aug 2023 2:45 am 

    Now we’re about to see a cascade of failures of complex systems across the West over the next two decades, and the lights will go out for everyone, eventually. These fools who think they can live out life in a cave two miles below the surface will produce mutants by the third generation; man did not evolve to live like a mole, no matter how wealthy the mole.

    I stole this from a comment, It is not from me but the guy gets it. Once you start to use your cell phone as a identification card, you know you fucked your civilization, It is easier to do banking on a cell phone then on the internet. You are about to see cascading sets of failure that will bring the world electric grid down. Once permanently down, you will not be able to restart it.

    Only people that will leave earth will live.

  31. eee on Mon, 21st Aug 2023 5:54 am 

    Fucking fake long neck that you should broken a long time ago and goes against the law of mechanical engineering. Watch at 0,25 speed. Just fucking CGI

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY9PDSfEjUk

  32. eee on Mon, 21st Aug 2023 3:34 pm 

    I see your illusion fucktards. I have won, either I get eternal death or I leave earth. I have won against earth.

  33. eee on Mon, 21st Aug 2023 3:37 pm 

    Here it is loser, we are showing to the whole planet you are not real. Look the length of the whore next, what 6 or 8 inches. We see the illusion fucktards. See at 3:35

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EV0tmEa19zk

    I have already won, you have already lost fucktards

  34. eee on Mon, 21st Aug 2023 3:45 pm 

    The 10 year US treasuries yield finished higher today, fuckers. US financial system is coming down, losers.

    I have won, you have already lost.

  35. eee on Mon, 21st Aug 2023 3:49 pm 

    Atlantic Comes Alive: NHC Tracks Not One, Not Two, But Five Tropical Systems

    https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/atlantic-comes-alive-nhc-tracks-not-one-not-two-five-tropical-systems

    It is the ends of globalism, it is the end of the US, it is the end for Israel, it is the end of the US dollars as reference currency. What are you going to do against us mother fuckers.

  36. eee on Mon, 21st Aug 2023 3:54 pm 

    I am feeling disorientated. I will go b ack to bed. I feel like I might leave earth at anytime now.

  37. eee on Mon, 21st Aug 2023 9:07 pm 

    I am ready to leave earth, let’s do it now, let’s get the fuck out of hwre.

  38. Emer on Tue, 22nd Aug 2023 1:10 am 

    This is really sad! How is this even happening right now. Retaining Wall Nanaimo

  39. Smart TV on Tue, 22nd Aug 2023 5:35 am 

    Considering buying a Smart TV online in the UAE? Any recommendations for reliable brands or features I should look for?

  40. eee on Tue, 22nd Aug 2023 11:48 am 

    Fucking garbage Jews. You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked you.

    You made a mistake by inviting Japan and Korean to the Whites House.

    The bitch look like a fucking animal. Animals and humans don’t mix. Whites and Jews(animals) don’t mix.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_hKhc4p_TU

    I don’t care. I have abandon all my earthy project. I am leaving earth or getting eternal death. I have already won, you have already lost.

  41. eee on Tue, 22nd Aug 2023 12:14 pm 

    I have to stop making comments. I know you are putting video on YouTube and bothering in my private life because you want to generate an emotion in me so I keep helping you leaving earth. You are not leaving earth. Only me will leave earth. You stay here and die.

  42. eee on Tue, 22nd Aug 2023 12:25 pm 

    You are not leaving earth and earth will become your execution chamber. It does not matter how much you manipulate me, does not matter how much you are using my family members to manipulate me, does not matter that you are using my neighbors to manipulate me, does not matter that you are using strangers at the grocery store to manipulate me, does not matter that you are making YouTube video to manipulate me.

    You are not leaving earth. I will be the only one leaving earth period.

  43. eee on Tue, 22nd Aug 2023 12:34 pm 

    You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked you and not questioned me about my reasons to do so.

  44. eee on Tue, 22nd Aug 2023 3:09 pm 

    Because of everything that happen on earth and to me, I have no trust left, I therefore recommend the death of everyone living on earth and the total destruction of earth.

  45. eee on Tue, 22nd Aug 2023 3:11 pm 

    Because of everything that happened on earth and happened to me, I have no trust left in the capacity of the people of earth to contribute anything significant to the universe, I therefore recommend the death of everyone living on earth and the total destruction of earth.

  46. eee on Wed, 23rd Aug 2023 8:02 am 

    You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked and no questioned wen I am asking so. I was bad idea to invite South Korean and Japan prime minister to the US.

    Because of everything that happened on earth and happened to me, I have no trust left in the capacity of the people of earth to contribute anything significant to the universe, I therefore recommend the death of everyone living on earth and the total destruction of earth.

  47. eee on Wed, 23rd Aug 2023 8:17 am 

    You should have killed all the Jews of the world when I asked you and not questioned me why I am asking so.

  48. eee on Wed, 23rd Aug 2023 8:21 am 

    If you go as long as using family member to manipulate someone, it means you will do even worse to this person if you decide to and will use this person as you see fit because you have no morality.

  49. eee on Wed, 23rd Aug 2023 8:24 am 

    I have no choice other then recommend the execution of everyone living on earth and the total destruction of earth.

  50. eee on Wed, 23rd Aug 2023 10:26 am 

    I noticed that a bit everywhere. This new tendency to ask kids of 12 years old about subject they don’t have enough Knowledge to form an opinions about. They know nothing, they have not suffer enough to give their opinion on anything.

    What the fuck are you trying to achieve with that crap. I want everyone death and I want to leave earth or get eternal death. You are really fucking pissing me off, forcing me to be part of your fuckin BS simulation. You most be desperate to have to run a simulation to solve problems that you are most likely incapable of solving yourself.

    1:07, stupid kid with no life experience giving his opinions.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJCgmZ1SE1s

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