The U.S. Economy Is Bigger and Stronger Than GM (not!)

In the statement following its Tuesday meeting, the Fed reiterated that accommodative monetary policy “coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity.”

Using year-over-year changes to smooth out the noise, non- farm business productivity rose 2.5 percent in the first quarter, down from 5.5 percent a year ago and in line with what economists think is the economy’s underlying trend, with cyclical ebbs and flows removed.

Unit labor costs, or the labor costs that go into producing one unit of output, rose 2.5 percent in the first quarter from a year ago, the biggest increase in almost four years. Unit costs are now rising faster than the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which means they’ve become part of the problem, not part of the solution.

For every basis point the Eurodollar futures rallied yesterday, they gave back about 2.5 basis points today. The nation may indeed be going the way of GM, but at least for today, investors have changed their views about the Fed’s likely response.

Bloomberg