The Problem with Natural Gas

In 1997, Joseph Riva, senior geologist writing for the Colorado School of Mines, turned a skeptical eye toward the rapidly emerging dependence of the United States on natural gas (NG). Riva suggested that the rush to embrace NG as the primary fuel to meet incremental electricity and space heating demand was based more on sociopolitical hope than on geological reality. Noting that domestic NG production had peaked at 22.6 tcf in 1973, Riva questioned not merely whether the EIA projected production of 25.5 tcf by 2015 could be met but even whether the then current output of 19.8 tcf could be maintained. Basing his analysis on the level of known reserves and the rate of new discoveries, Riva argued that unless an unprecedented number of large fields were found soon: