The Peak Oil Crisis: Diesel

Now there seems to be a new problem developing: diesel for the great machines that grow our food, bring us stuff, take away our garbage and do nearly all the chores needed to keep our civilization running. If you think about it for a few minutes, you might conclude that a diesel shortage would be worse than a gasoline shortage. If the availability of gasoline gets tight, we can all cancel recreational car trips, play dates for the kids, and form commuting or shopping carpools. For the sake of some inconvenience, we could cut gasoline consumption by a whole lot.

It’s not the same with diesel however.
Two farmers can’t jump on a tractor and plow both their farms at the same time. Most of those 18-wheelers barreling down the interstate are either full or on the way to be filled. One trash truck picking up in two neighborhoods at the same time doesn’t work either. In short, it is going to be a lot harder to conserve on diesel fuel, which for the most part does vital work, than it would be to conserve gasoline for our personal transportation.

To gain an insight into what will happen in 2008, we need to remember that refined diesel can only come from places that have refineries and a surplus to sell. We are talking about Europe, the Caribbean and some Asian countries, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea. It is interesting to note that in the U.S. diesel is 28 percent of the total daily consumption of gasoline and diesel, while in Europe the number is 63 percent. In other words Europe is much more into diesel than the U.S. and therefore unlikely to have much for sale. International Energy Agency forecasts for 2008 show a substantial drop coming in distillate exports.

As diesel shortages are a real drag on China’s economy, continuing or even increasing imports of this vital commodity are likely to continue. The bottom line seems to be that shortages for diesel and heating oil now seem likely to develop before they do for gasoline.

Falls Church News Press