The Oil Drum: The forecasting record of CERA and other commentators

Central to the Peak Oil debate, is the ability of individuals to forecast the future, based upon information that is available to them today. Different people and organisations come up with different forecasts based on the same data. So how does anyone know who to believe?

Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) in March 2006 presented a model for UK oil production capacity showing around 2,350,000 bpd for the UK in 2006. That’s around 700,000 bpd higher than the actual production figure.

Where does the truth lie? A full review of CERA’s and other UK oil production forecasts are dicussed under the fold.

Much more after the jump to The Oil Drum.