The Oil Drum: September 2007 Oil Production Forecasts and EIA Revisions

Executive Summary:

A. Broad revision (from 1980 to 2004) by the EIA this month but not significant in amplitude.

B. Monthly production peaks are unchanged:

1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.54 mbpd (up 0.11 mbpd), the year to date average production in 2007 (6 months) is 84.28 mbpd (up 0.02 mbpd), down 0.07 mbpd from 2006 for the same period.

2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.09 mbpd (up 0.01 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 81.20 mbpd (down 0.04 mbpd), down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.

3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd (up 0.15 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 73.23 mbpd (up 0.14 mbpd), down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.

4. NGPL: the peak date is still February 2007 at 8.03 mbpd (down 0.21 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 7.97 mbpd (down 0.18 mbpd), up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.

C. Decline in crude oil + condensate continues: June 2007 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 72.82 mbpd compared to 73.11 mbpd one year ago and 73.92 mbpd two years ago.

D. Average forecast: the average forecast for crude oil + NGL based on 13 different projections (Figure above) is showing a kind of production plateau around 81 +/- 4 mbpd with a decline after 2010 +/- 1 year.

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