The Oil Drum: Predicting Future Oil Prices

Here, we will talk about pricing and the accuracy of the signal that the oil markets (eg. NYMEX, Brent) send us. My research leads me to believe that recent price rises over the last few years (both in the short term front end of the pricing curve and the longer term back end of the curve) are an indicator of changed fundamentals reflecting a real structural adjustment in the market and are not part of a “normal” historical up & down cycle in oil prices. So, in that regard, to try to prove my point, there are three major issues regarding oil prices I’ll consider here…
Much more after the jump to The Oil Drum.