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Page added on December 23, 2014
The Oil Drum & Peak oil videos
The Oil Drum was a website devoted to analysis and discussion of energy and its impact on society. The Oil Drum was published by the Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future, a Colorado non-profit corporation. The site was a resource for information on many energy and sustainability topics, including peak oil, and related concepts such as oil megaprojects, Hubbert linearization, and the Export Land Model. The Oil Drum had over 25 online contributors from all around the globe.
The site announced that it would stop delivering new content and turn into an archive resource as of August 31, 2013. Reasons cited for this change include server costs and a dwindling number of contributors of high-quality content.
The Oil Drum was rated one of the top five sustainability blogs of 2007 by Nielsen Netratings, and is read by a diverse collection of public figures, including Roscoe Bartlett, Paul Krugman, James…
This channel was generated automatically by YouTube’s video discovery system.
69 Comments on "The Oil Drum & Peak oil videos"
Nony on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 12:34 pm
This video is almost self parody. The Oil Drum (a collection of steeple-templed amateur analysts) bit the bag when its doom predictions didn’t work out.
Dredd on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 1:17 pm
It practised censorship. Good riddance.
ghung on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 2:20 pm
“It practised censorship.”
TOD was good in that it attempted to keep a high signal to noise ratio by discouraging comments from those who were clearly not interested in forwarding constructive discussions of important topics. Whatever predictions and prophecies that may have been found there were never claimed to be any more than that. The commenting guidelines were clearly stated, and any supposed censorship was merely the result of enforcing those guidelines. I found Leanan’s moderation to be top notch, even though some of my comments were “censored” due to my not holding to those guidelines.
Those who delight in dancing on TOD’s grave are hypocrites, in my opinion. Would these same people (calling Nony out here) delight in the discontinuation of their own communities because some members of said communities were wrong in their predictions or didn’t behave according to your biases? Nony: Do you condemn the US markets (oil, stocks) because some in those communities have been wrong in their projections; sometimes horribly wrong? Do you reject everyone in your life because they are wrong sometimes? Are you devoted to always throwing out babies with bathwater?
God help you if that’s the case. You’ll get no quarter from me. I, personally, prefer to dance on the graves of those who display that level of hubris; hold others to a standard they themselves can’t begin to approach.
Nony on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 2:26 pm
I don’t have a problem with them being wrong. I have a problem with them not manning up and admitting it.
http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2013/07/429-oil-drum-bites-bag.html
ghung on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 2:45 pm
Nony:“I have a problem with them not manning up and admitting it.”
Who? And did you expect ‘them’ to take out a full page add in the NYT saying “WE WERE WRONG!”? About what? Everything? Many of the discussions and conclusions I read on TOD have either been right, or continue to unfold. Again, I question your expectations as being arrogant and unrealistic. It was a discussion board; not “The absolute future of humanity according to the TOD demigods”.
May your strawmen burn in hell as you piss on their graves. Meanwhile, I’ll predict you won’t be around when your conclusions turn out to be dead wrong; as your oily little world comes crashing down around you. Shouldn’t be long now, but, I MAY BE WRONG, since the future, TOD, and this site were never under any obligation to meet my expectations.
Nony on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 2:54 pm
ace, Piccolo, Staniford, Rune, Gail, Simmons, Campbell, Deffeyes. That will do for a start.
P.s. I like that you want to fight me. At least you’re not dead inside.
Perk Earl on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 3:13 pm
“I found Leanan’s moderation to be top notch, even though some of my comments were “censored” due to my not holding to those guidelines.”
I’m surprised to read that’s your opinion, Ghung. I found her overbearing, like a ticked off grandmother. She would get on someone’s case for mentioning something that had been mentioned earlier in the thread. Who cares? Let the thread take on a life of it’s own, but she became over time more control oriented as to how someone could respond and her opinion overrode theirs, period. I think she single handedly nixed that website. I truly think if some moderator had been even handed it could still easily be going today.
Everybody on there started discussing where to resume the reparte’ as the closeing of TOD approached. Many of those posters ended up here, so in a sense TOD never died it just transformed into different formats on different web addresses. In fact Gail’s site now gets as many as a 1,000 responses to her bi-weekly articles. In fact Gail’s articles were not allowed on TOD for a long time then only occiasionally if the topic was approved by Leanan. She and Ron Patterson locked horns and now he has his own website.
Nobody likes to be corralled like a herd of cattle. Just let us mix it up and peak oil dot com does a good job of that. Thanks guys and gals!
Scott Benson on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 3:15 pm
With oil production peaking in 2005 and has been dropping slowly ever since IF YOU TAKE OUT THE U.S. PRODUCTION, I find it hard to see the/we peakists being wrong. The 4 mbpd of fracked oil that makes up a big part of U.S. oil is unsustainable financially (driven by junk bonds and low interest rates) and environmentally. Yes, oil production worldwide continues to grow … if you cheat.
Nony on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 3:22 pm
Bwahahaha. And the Redskins had a great season if I ignore the games the lost. Cripes, Scott. Listen to yourself. Wht gives you justification to ignore the US?
Heck…and you peakers (Rune, Picollo, commenters galore here) TALKED DOWN the shale as it was coming up. Even when warned of it, you ignored it.
You are cheaaters, cheaters, pumpkin eaters.
dolanbaker on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 3:23 pm
Far too many peak oil commentators suffered from tunnel vision and forgot to look at the wider view of the unfolding situation. Oil is not the only fuel and the world doesn’t run only on oil. But at the same time it’s important to remember that a decade ago there was a looming oil crisis, partly caused by lack of investment in the late 1990s. That was resolved after a quadrupling in the price allowed the more expensive stuff to be extracted.
Peak oil isn’t finished, it just wasn’t as dramatic as some predicted.
The current price collapse may actually cause the “ultimate peak” to happen in the next couple of months as shale drilling is suspended until prices rise enough to make them viable again. After that I doubt that production levels will exceed the levels in January 2015. (bold prediction 😉 )
Scott Benson on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 3:43 pm
All we managed to prove is that peak oil isn’t “simple, black & white, thats all .. everyone go home” kinda thing. It is messy and gray and erratic and anyone making ANY prediction of any kind in the energy world is somewhat foolish. But I’m pretty confident still that a trend is establishing. And if we are going to throw out the economic rulebook (borrow money that wont be paid back and that’s ok) to produce just one more thimblefull of oil .. ultimately, we know where this is headed. 🙂
GregT on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 3:48 pm
“Heck…and you peakers (Rune, Picollo, commenters galore here) TALKED DOWN the shale as it was coming up.”
And you Nony, are talking it UP as it winds down. Shale oil did not stop the coming end of the oil age. It merely extended it for a few years longer, while we have papered over the damage done to our economies from the resulting higher oil prices. Your arguments are a fools game Nony. Kind of like arguing that someone is wrong in predicting that the Sun will set at 6:15, when in reality it will set at 6:30. The time is irrelevant, the outcome will be the same.
Nony on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 3:51 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-diB65scQU
GregT on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 4:09 pm
“Pessimism About the Future May Lead to Longer, Healthier Life, Research Finds”
“Our findings revealed that being overly optimistic in predicting a better future was associated with a greater risk of disability and death within the following decade”
“Pessimism about the future may encourage people to live more carefully, taking health and safety precautions.”
It also encourages people to plan for a future that may not be as comfortable as the present.
The Ant and the Grasshopper
The fable concerns a grasshopper that has spent the warm months singing while the ant (or ants in some versions) worked to store up food for winter. When that season arrives, the grasshopper finds itself dying of hunger and begs the ant for food.
You Nony, are the grasshopper.
Nony on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 4:25 pm
Yes, sensei
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kr24G8jQpM
dashster on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 7:08 pm
It is incredible that given the peaking of conventional oil, given the price rise of oil (even today historically high) and given the increase in demand from the third world due to massive job export by the OECD – people are still optimistic about oil.
And for the right wing, when global oil production begins terminal decline, they will be sure that it is not due to geology. Environmentalists, dictators and shieks are causing it. We could even elect a president based on promises to get the oil that “is due us”.
old coyote on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 7:32 pm
“We could even elect a president based on promises to get the oil that “is due us”.- like all presidents since FDR?? Bombs for democracy…… riiiight. The worlds largest aircraft carrier, USSA Zion, maintains control of “our oil”. Stirring up trouble keeps the troops on the double… Money as debt requires access to cheap energy, as noted by many of the previous oil drummers. It is funny to see the same bs from cornucopians here too: take a quick trip to the Bakken, wise guy, and watch the exodus from the boom towns. Saudi America? bwahaha indeed. Yes, yes- throw enough money into a hole in the ground, and now we can create limitless new supplies of energy. Geology? – must have missed that in all the MBA classes…
Plantagenet on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 8:04 pm
Someone must own the website “theoildrum.com”
I wonder why they don’t restart it or let someone else operate it?
yellowcanoe on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 8:16 pm
At the risk of offending the moderators, I would have to say that I found The Oil Drum to be a more stimulating forum than this one.
R1verat on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 8:23 pm
Yellow canoe~Face it. Once one has said all there is to say, what more can one say?! As a long follower of this site, there are many redundant comments where it’s pretty much the same ole, same ole. However there are a couple seemingly intelligent, articulate contributors…..Just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Nony on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 8:36 pm
dashster:
When price is high, you blame it on running out of oil.
When price is low, you blame it on running out of oil (or “demand destruction”).
Hint, hint: you’re right on the first one and wrong on the second one.
Ain’t NO FREAKING WAY to say that the oil price drop is peak oil. It is a supply story with Palin-loving drill-baby-drillers kicking Saudi ASS.
dashster on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 10:51 pm
“Someone must own the website “theoildrum.com”
I wonder why they don’t restart it or let someone else operate it?”
I seem to recall that being raised and people being ready to take over. But I think it was a matter of the originators not wanting others’ work to be associated with theirs.
Kinda like when you try and get blogspot or wordpress to allow you to take over the name of a blog that either has never been used, or hasn’t been used in years. They will say they can’t allow it since it is possible that someone will associate your blog with the previous one.
dashster on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 10:56 pm
“When price is high, you blame it on running out of oil.”
When the price is high I blame it on their not being enough oil to meet demand versus the previous situation.
“When price is low, you blame it on running out of oil (or “demand destruction”).”
When the price is low I would “blame” it on their being a good supply relative to demand. You are making the mistake of thinking that we are currently at low oil prices. Adjusted for inflation, the historical median and average price of oil is around $25.
“Hint, hint: you’re right on the first one and wrong on the second one.”
Hint hint: you’re wishful thinking regarding oil is on it’s last legs.
“Ain’t NO FREAKING WAY to say that the oil price drop is peak oil. It is a supply story with Palin-loving drill-baby-drillers kicking Saudi ASS.”
Who is saying that the oil price drop is a reflection of Peak Oil? This price drop (from the higest plateau ever – to a still historically high price) is a few months old. It is too soon to draw conclusions based on it.
Nony on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 11:08 pm
I agree prices are historically high. I agree that depletion of “cheap oil” (POD, whatever) is a big reason behind how high things were and how high they still are.
But cutting one leg off is better than cutting both off. I mean…it’s bad. But still noticeable less bad. And heck Boone Pickens says without that 4 MM BPD US LTO we’d be at $150-175 right now. That’s like chopping an arm off along with both legs.
If you really want to drive the price down: let us drill the ANWAR, let KXL get built, get rid of the export restriction on US C&C (so we can send light out and take heavy in), open the 87% of the coasts that ore off limits. And get the NIMBYs to let us build pipelines through MN and IA from ND. [Infrastructure builder president, my ass.] We’ve already kicked ass with handcuffs on…let us loose and US oil industry will drive price down even more.
dubya on Tue, 23rd Dec 2014 11:12 pm
R1verat – I think you have it – there is a fact that oil is not going to last forever, and we have based our society on it. TOD was flogging a dead horse, but not in the way most people think.
The details are currently unpredictable, but that main fact will not change; no matter how many people rant about it being fixed, cured or technologically eliminated. Even if we found a infinite, harmless replacement for oil that would not solve the problems of overpopulation and consumption, loss of ecological habitat and topsoil, water use – though it might help the climate chaos.
Humanity existed at some sort of unpleasant steady state for millennia, and in a few hundred years has backed itself into a very awkward corner.
However, this has been the greatest age to exist, and it is difficult to imagine any other society.
GregT on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 12:16 am
“But cutting one leg off is better than cutting both off.”
Nony, burning oil is causing irreversible damage to the only planet that we will ever have to live on. Lower-high oil prices are not like cutting off a leg, they are like slitting our throats. The worst thing that could happen at this point for all species on Earth, including our own, is cheaper oil.
Jimmy on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 12:40 am
Nony you’re a fucking idiot. Get a life. Or maybe take a physics class or something you moron.
Nony on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 12:57 am
Gregt: Perfect example to show that peakers are more about hating FF usage itself than about some sort of better analysis of reserves.
Nony on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 12:57 am
Gregt: Perfect example to show that peakers are more about hating FF usage itself than about some sort of better analysis of reserves.
Makati1 on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 5:18 am
Ah the name calling comes out when intelligence is missing. And the blame game is rampant in the West.
Who could have guessed 10 years ago that:
We would be having negative interest rates in our savings and they would become property of the bank in event of failure?
That the Fed would be burning up the presses with QE to infinity? And, yes, QE4 is coming next year, I suspect.
Or that oil would jump into the range where stupidity could be over come with money and fraking spread like a flu virus across the USSA?
Or that Emperor O would start another Cold War with Russia by using Nazis to take over a Democratically elected government and kill it’s people?
Or that China would be the number one economy by 2014 in PPP?
That the US would NOT have a way to use the space station without Russian taxis, or even put satellites into orbit without Russian engines?
That China would have the fastest super computer by far and an aircraft carrier?
And on and on…
Tell me what is going to happen in 2015, if you dare.
forbin on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 8:17 am
To cheer you all up ….. well a try 😉
Its begining to look like Peak Oil
(sung to the tune of It’s Beginning to Look
a Lot Like Christmas )
It’s beginning to look a lot like Peak Oil
Ev’rywhere you go;
Nooy’s having a laff , dissing TOD’s predictive past
With no predictions of his ooooowwwwn
It’s beginning to look a lot like Peak Oil,
Unemployed in ev’ry town,
But the prettiest sight to see is the Zombies that will be
On your own front door.
A pair of full size Ghawas and a gas feild that never ends
Is the wish of Obama and Ben;
Money that will talk and will even go for a walk
Is the hope of Lagarde and Yellen;
And Repubs and Dems can hardly wait for economy to start again.
It’s beginning to look a lot like Peak Oil
Ev’rywhere you go;
There’s no oil in ANWAR the blues, and none in Ghawar too
Except thick oily kind that doesnt like to flow..
It’s beginning to look a lot like Peak Oil;
Soon the apocalypse bells will start,
And the thing that will make them ring is the optimism that you sing
Right within your heart.
Merry Christmas everyone and Happy Easter !
Forbin
ghung on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 8:46 am
Nony: Perfect example to show that Nony is more about love, adoration for, and being a slave to, FF usage itself than about some sort of better analysis of fossil fuels’ net long-term benefit to humanity. I’ve heard of people deifying some weird shit,, but oil?
Oil luvs me this I know
For the Nony tells me so
Little ones to it belong
They are weak but Oil is strong
[everybody now!]
Yes! Oil loves me
Yes, Oil loves me
Yes, Oil loves me
For the Nony tells me so!
Oil loves me! This I know,
It was made so long ago,
Taking children on Its knee,
Saying, “Let them come to Me.”
[again!]
Yes! Oil loves me
Yes, Oil loves me
Yes, Oil loves me
For the Nony tells me so!
Oil loves me still today,
Driving with me on my way,
Wanting as a friend to give
Smog and carbon to all who live.
[one more time!]
Yes! Oil loves me
Yes, Oil loves me
Yes, Oil loves me
For the Nony tells me so!
Oil loves me! Most will die
Satan’s gate to open wide;
He will burn away my sin,
Let the Earthlings all come in.
[with feeling!]
Yes! Oil loves me
Yes, Oil loves me
Yes, Oil loves me
For the Nony tells me so!
Oil loves me! But won’t stay
Death behind me all the way;
Thou hast bled and burned for me,
I will henceforth kill for Thee.
[half octave up; with force]
Yes! Oil loves me
Yes, Oil loves me
Yes, Oil loves me
For the Nony tells me soooo!
rockman on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 9:21 am
Yes: a good bit of redundancy with occasional modifications/updates. And with Rockman at the top of the list. Why he was banned from TOD for a while. But the repetition, from Rockman’s POV, is for a specific reason: the newbies. There are new watchers who, unfortunately, don’t post and make their presence known. Look how many views a new thread receives: far many then can be accounted for by our resident blabbermouths. LOL. Occasionally we do lure them into our honey trap and get them to join the conversations. New blood is always good.
So a holiday invitation to all you interested mutes: get off you butts, take all that time to register, and wish all us regulators (who have no life and are trapped here) and wish us a Happy Holiday!
And now back to the Nonyworld thread.
Plantagenet on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 9:21 am
I much prefer this site to the Oil Drum. This site is alive vibrant nonconformist free form challenging and interesting.
The Oil Drum is dead and gone
ghung on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 9:41 am
….and for those who can’t carry a tune:
“1. I believe in Oil the Father, Almighty, Spoiler of Heaven and Earth:
2. And in Natural Gas, his only begotten Son, our Saviour:
3. Who was conceived by the Holy Earth, born of the Virgin Rock:
4. Suffered under TOD; was crucified, dead and left buried: He descended into unprofitability:
5. The third day he rose again from the Bankruptcy:
6. He ascended into QE heaven, and sits at the right hand of Oil:
7. From thence he shall come to ignore the quick and the dead:
8. I believe in the Holy Oil:
9. I believe in the Mighty Coal: the burning of stuff:
10. The excommunication of TOD:
1l. The destruction of the Planet:
12. And the Death everlasting. Amen.
Apneaman on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 11:20 am
Nony says:
“If you really want to drive the price down: let us drill the ANWAR, let KXL get built, get rid of the export restriction on US C&C (so we can send light out and take heavy in), open the 87% of the coasts that ore off limits. And get the NIMBYs to let us build pipelines through MN and IA from ND. [Infrastructure builder president, my ass.] We’ve already kicked ass with handcuffs on…let us loose and US oil industry will drive price down even more.”
Who is us? Sounds like Nony has his identity and life’s hopes and dreams wrapped up in the success or failure of an industry that does not even know he exists and would not bother to piss on him if he were on fire. There is no we in $$$$$. Sadly living vicariously is not really living at all.
Mike999 on Wed, 24th Dec 2014 4:21 pm
Being in a lull right now created by Saudi Arabia, which will wipe a number of wells and producers, is NOT the time to sign the death certificate of Peak Oil.
The peak oil facts are still there.
Exxon’s Tillerson himself sees a population growth number to 9 Billion, essentially a SUICIDE Number. So, peak oil was stalled by market mechanism.
Now if you continue to extract and burn that carbon, you’re going to get Peak Population and Global Warming Damage.
dissident on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 7:32 am
Peak oil production is tantamount to a law of nature given that oil is not an infinite reservoir. There is enough evidence now that the production is at its limits. The Saudis are playing their last game and clearly don’t even have the spare capacity that I recall being claimed (i.e. 12 million barrels per day of production). US non-conventional oil production is a short lived blip and not the dawning of a new era. Anyone expecting decades of sustained/increasing production is an ignorant fool.
Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 9:33 am
Shale added 4 MM bpd in 4 years. If it were truly a short-lived blip, the Saudis would have cut output and waited it out. There’s 8-10 years of drilling inventory in the Bakken and the Eagle Ford (at $100/bbl). Plus other plays coming on (Permian, TMS, Lime, etc.) Even Mark Poppa said he was wrong about how much legs the shale had. [He said it would not be enough to impact world markets.]
Price is the way to kill the shale. And what that basically means is shale is the marginal barrel in the market. Saudis realize that. OPEC is dead. World oil price is set by the cost of shale drilling and completion.
PeterEV on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 10:08 am
Nony,
“Price is the way to kill the shale.”
The other way is for drilling costs per barrel of oil to go up at 11% while wages rise at 2% per year. If people can no longer afford oil, demand drops. Eventually, very few can afford oil that is expensive to produce. Drilling costs for oil in Deep Water, the Arctic, and in marginal deposits are increasing faster than wages. This is a sign of “Peak Oil”.
Conventional oil peaking in 2005 is another sign. Drop offs in conventional oil (cheaper) production are being masked by unconventional production (expensive) increases.
Plots of natural gas production by field are showing steep drop offs. Drilling has to go at a faster and faster pace thereby increasing the cost per unit of gas produced.
Peak Gas follows Peak Oil.
How are **you** preparing??
Plantagenet on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 10:36 am
No doubt we’ll get to peak oil at some point, but the past predictions we’d get there in 2000 or 2005 or 2010 have all been proven wrong.
Thats a good thing—it gives everyone more time to prep.
Merry Xmas to all!
Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 10:38 am
PeterEV:
Volume is not down. Ergo, it’s not “demand destruction”. More volume is flowing at a lower price.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
PeterEV on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 10:46 am
Planet,
“The Oil Drum is dead and gone”
The TOD was a “class” act. The authors substantiated their stances with numbers and graphs.
The messages from TOD are still alive, real, and are being updated and carried over to this board by past TOD commenters. I have not read anything here that refutes the basic concepts outlined there. Unconventional oil has not delayed to onset of decline of **conventional** oil production. Rockman is still drilling. Ghung is still preparing. WesTex’s Export Land Model is still valid. While the TOD may be considered dead, it’s voice is very much alive and growing louder. Louder not by shouting but by people who are seeing the truth in its messages.
TOD is dead. Long live TOD (The Oil Drum)!!
Apneaman on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 10:53 am
Merry Christmas Sheeple of the world
It’s Official: The Worldwide Bail-ins Are Coming
“In case you missed the announcement, Cyprus-style bail-ins are coming to a bank near you.
On November 16, leaders of the G20 Group of Nations – the 20 largest economies – made an important decision. The world’s megabanks now have official permission to pledge depositor accounts as collateral to make leveraged derivative bets. And if they lose a bet, the counterparty to the contract has first dibs on your money.”
http://www.nestmann.com/its-official-the-worldwide-bail-ins-are-coming#.VJohjCOC8
Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 11:00 am
How’s Staniford’s SA concerns working out, 8 years later?
See:
Saudi Arabia declines 8% in 2006:
“Overall, I feel this data is clear enough that I’m willing to go out on a limb and conclude the following:
•Saudi Arabian oil production is now in decline.
•The decline rate during the first year is very high (8%), akin to decline rates in other places developed with modern horizontal drilling techniques such as the North Sea.
•Declines are rather unlikely to be arrested, and may well accelerate.
•Matt Simmons appears to be right in Twilight in the Desert, but the warning did not come until after declines had actually begun.”
A Nosedive toward the Desert:
“I explain in detail how the evidence strongly suggests that since late 2004, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has entered rapid decline of their oil production”
Or the ]watering out of Ghawar’ crap that didn’t work out for Staniford…
PeterEV on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 11:21 am
“Volume is not down. Ergo, it’s not “demand destruction”. More volume is flowing at a lower price.”
Volume of conventional oil production is down. It peaked in the last decade. Will conventional oil production surmount this peak ever again? From what sources? We are almost at 2015 and no one has found another Ghawar, North Sea, Prudhoe Bay, etc. The messages from Deffeyes, Simmons, Campbell were warnings with opinons on when they would occur. Those warnings are turning out to be real even if the timing is off for some.
There are indications that the sweet spots in the Bakken have been drilled. How long until the Bakken peaks? Where to next?? How long before **unconventional** oil peaks? What are the alternatives? How expensive are they to produce? How long will they last?
Northwest Resident on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 11:23 am
“The Oil Drum is dead and gone”
The Oil Drum is dead and gone just like America’s Founding Fathers are dead and gone. Just like Jesus Christ is dead and gone. Just like Abraham Lincoln is dead and gone.
In reality, the ideas expressed, the visions of what is and what should and what will be, the realities exposed by the Oil Drum are still very much alive and vibrant, much more relevant today than ever before. Truth can be suppressed, it can be twisted and it can be denied, but it never dies.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year everybody. Enjoy what’s left of 2014. All of the many truths and the realities that were exposed by so many voices on the Oil Drum are going to become ever more obvious in 2015.
PeterEV on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 11:31 am
Nony,
The Saudis said in 2004 that at 10mbd, their production would go into terminal decline around 2042. At 12 mbd, their production would go into terminal decline around 2034(?). Why and for what fields Staniford made his prediction is something you will have to email him about. Why would he second guess the Saudis about their own fields?
The important point is that professional oil producers recognize their own “Peak Oil”. How come you are not accepting that???
Nony on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 11:37 am
PEV:
1. The refinery customer does not care about if the oil he purchases comes from a conventional well or “unconventional”. All he cares about is the composition. The customers are showing with their $$ that they have plenty of value for “unconventional oil”.
2. It’s pretty funny that you want to disallow US LTO from “counting”. In 2005, the peakers laughed at the cornies when the cornies said “we’ll find more oil somewhere…I’m not sure where or how…um technology and exploration”. Now we have the Bakken and the Eagle Ford and the peakers want to say “that’s not fair…we couldn’t predict it”.
3. The Bakken will grow GANGBUSTERS at 100. It’s not geology limited. There’s 10 years of drilling inventory at 100+. You all have been talking US LTO down the whole way…and it has KICKED ASS and now has volume that MATTERS world-wide.
Apneaman on Thu, 25th Dec 2014 11:59 am
“Keep in mind, a glut or the appearance of one makes sense at the oil extraction peak, after all, what is a ‘peak’ but the period of the greatest rate of extraction? There cannot be more petroleum available any time than at a peak. All that remains is for consumption to sort itself out; our brilliant-as-technology marketplaces will take care of that by themselves. Glut = cheaper crude! It’s morning in America, again!”
http://www.economic-undertow.com/2014/12/24/peak-oil/?utm_content=buffer37736&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer