The Oil Drum: OPEC Declines and the World Plateau

The EIA came out with the latest International Petroleum Monthly yesterday, which allows us to update the plateau graph, and triggered me into a little investigation of what’s going on with OPEC production. Firstly, the world situation. [Graph of Average daily oil production, by month, from various estimates. Click to enlarge. Runs from Jan 2002 to Feb 2006.]

As you can see, the EIA confirms the IEA’s impression that February production is down from the all time peaks of May/December 2005, but still definitely within striking range. The EIA is slightly more negative than the IEA for this month, but the discrepancy between the two is not large by historical standards. In short, the plateau continues for now, but there certainly is not compelling evidence that we have seen the all-time production peak month at present.

A quick update of the graph for the two most key players gives [graph of Average daily oil production, by month, for Russia and Saudi Arabia. Runs from Jan 2002 to Feb 2006.] As you can see, February saw Saudi Arabian production continuing in the plateau they’ve been in for over eighteen months now. More significantly, Russian production in February has not resumed the upward march of the last few years, following a weather related anomaly in January. Is this due to the continued effects of the cold winter in northern Eurasia, or more than that? Time will tell…

Moving onto my main theme, here’s an update of the OPEC versus non-OPEC production. Each is expressed as a percentage of the peak month (September 2005 for OPEC, and December 2005 for non-OPEC).

Much more of Stuart’s data-filled, chart-filled post after the jump to The Oil Drum.