The Oil Drum: Further Evidence of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production Decline

My post is related to Stuart’s and Euan’s stories as my post discusses the declining Saudi Arabia’s future production rates. The discussion about Euan’s and Stuart’s stories further validates Saudi Arabia’s forecast decline.

My forecast decline for Saudi Arabia is in disagreement with Euan’s previous statement: “According to my view, Saudi Arabia, together with other OPEC countries will raise production to meet this demand challenge”. This demand challenge is stated by Euan to be that “The IEA are forecasting demand to rise strongly by around 3 million bpd between the second and fourth quarters.” My assumption in my forecast in that Saudi Arabia does not have any long term ability to raise their production. This assumption is confirmed by Riyadh Bank’s recent forecast of 8.44 mb/d average production for Saudi Arabia in 2007.

Much more after the jump to The Oil Drum.