The Oil Drum: A Debate on the Timing of the Peak, Part I

Resolved: World Net Oil Export Capacity is Now Declining Because of Involuntary Reductions in Production and/or Because of Increases in Domestic Consumption in Major Oil Exporting Countries

Robert Rapier suggested that we debate this topic, and I agreed. In reality, there are only shades of gray difference between us regarding the timing of Peak Oil and Peak Exports. I believe that the crisis has hit, while Robert believes that the worst won’t be upon us until some time shortly after 2010. Robert will file his rejoinder about a week from today.

In any case, in a guest post on The Oil Drum (TOD) in January 2006, I predicted, based on graphs primarily done by Khebab that the world would see declining net oil exports this year.

Much more after the jump to The Oil Drum.