The Oil Drum: 4%, 11%, Who the Hell Cares?

Who cares about the depletion rate? It’s some small fussy number that we don’t know, right? Peak Oil is PEAK OIL! Once we hit the peak all bets are off.

Wrong, I say. Once we are post-peak, the depletion rate is going to be the single most important variable by far. I argue it controls whether peak oil is minor unpleasantness, or Overshoot-style die-off.

If we understand these issues, I think it can help to clarify exactly why one might choose to live at one or other end of the peak-oil spectrum – complacency or panic.
A lot more depletion rate talk after the jump to The Oil Drum.