The next energy decade with Dan Yergin

Pick up the Sunday newspaper for a busines staff review of the last decade, and predictions from industry icons for the next ten years. This decade has been a struggle, and I, for one, will truly celebrate the beginning of 2010.

I asked energy guru Dan Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates and author of The Prize, what he expects from the ‘teens. A portion of the interview will appear on Sunday. Here’s a longer version of our discussion.

From Dan Yergin:

“When you just do the mathematics you see that oil is going to continue through the next decade to be the predominant energy source. You kind of have to divide the world in two. ther’s the industrial U.S. and the other industrial countries. In the last couple of years we’ve reached peak demand. Demand will recover somewhat through the recession, then it will be declining because of demographics and fuel-efficient engines. As populations age they drive less… There’s a focus on energy efficiency to an extent we’ve neer seen before.”

“It’s quite a different picture when you look at emerging markets… As those markets motorize we’ll see more demand.”

“There are many astonishing things that happened in 2009, and one of them is the way China ascended to the world’s largest automobile market. That’s something that wasn’t supposed to happen for another five or 10 years.”

Dallas Morning News