The Long Plateau of Peak Oil

When might the peak of world oil production arrive, and what might be the peak production rate? These are key questions, with many unknowns but few equations. The most we can do is to make some educated guesses based on past observations.

Global oil production’s peak will probably not form a well-defined crest. Instead, it will likely stretch out as an irregular plateau. I will crawl out onto the limb to say that the plateau might begin around 2010 and extend to 2020. The highest sustained level of crude oil production might be 10 million b/d greater than production for 2006, a gain of about 15%.

Some analysts have applied the mathematical methods pioneered by M. King Hubbert to estimate both the year and rate of peak oil production. In his seminal 1956 paper, Hubbert correctly predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970. Applying the axiom, “You can only produce what you first discover,” he exhaustively compiled the history of oil discoveries and reserve additions. He then translated the history into a production profile for the future.

Dr. Hubbert limited his analysis to be the 48 adjacent states where exploration showed signs of peaking. He knew that vast prospective basins in Alaska awaited testing, so he excluded Alaska.

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