The Energy Optimist’s Lexicon

The world’s energy optimists often employ a particular lexicon to make their case for abundance far into the future. Whether the lexicon is used cynically or out of ignorance, the result is the same: false impressions.

It is understandable that when people want to argue their case effectively, they use the terms most favorable to their argument. We should expect that in any spirited debate. But when it comes to the debate over the world’s energy future, those arguing for continued abundance are sometimes ignorant of the full implications of the terms they use and sometimes just intellectually dishonest.


To help readers sort through the thicket of loaded terms often used by the energy optimists, I’ve constructed a short list of the most pernicious words and phrases that are often used to fool audiences rather than inform them.

Above-ground factors — The optimists argue that there is plenty of oil, usually for many decades to comes, so long as “above-ground factors” don’t prevent its extraction. Factors cited often include wars, social unrest, lack of investment, environmental restrictions on drilling, and political restrictions on foreign ownership or participation in oil development in countries thought to have high potential for oil discovery. (Most, but not all of these, are in the Middle East.)

Of course, the optimists are correct that all these factors can depress oil output. But the assumption behind their lament is that somehow we can easily brush aside these factors. Do these optimists propose that we simply threaten countries or perhaps invade them to force them to allow their untapped fields to be explored and developed? Do they advocate the wholesale dismantling of environmental regulations? Do they have a plan for forcing the oil industry to make the necessary investments in exploration and infrastructure? Usually, they don’t say.

But what readers need to understand is that the oil infrastructure is both an above-ground and below-ground system inextricably intertwined. Future petroleum-based fuel supplies will rely on whether this system can produce increasing amounts of crude oil and refined products. Simply ignoring or complaining about “above-ground factors” won’t make them go away. Above-ground factors are likely to continue to have a mostly negative effect on the rate of production for oil and probably also natural gas for a long time. (For more on “rate of production”, see “Resource” below.)

Scitizen