The developing scandal around the IEA and peak oil

The IEA

…The full impact of these developments has not yet been appreciated by the world economic community. For many years (up until its 2008 report) the IEA has predicted future world oil output based on what would be required to support future predicted economic growth. This is putting the cart before the horse since it is energy availability that constrains economic activity not the other way around.

Fortunately for the IEA in the past it has always been possible to increase oil production in line with a growing economy. However, this easy relationship began to break down in 2005 when conventional oil production plateaued and now, after the financial crash of 2008, oil production has begun to fall. (In fact, it is possible to make a very strong argument (PDF 637KB) that it was the high oil prices of 2008 – due to the supply/demand imbalance – that pricked the housing debt bubble in the USA and so triggered the current financial crisis.)

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