The Dangers of Certitude

…This past August, your ASPO-USA conference co-chairs (Jim Baldauf and Steve Andrews) traveled to Houston to meet the editors and publishers of World Oil magazine and Oil and Gas Investor magazine, plus the editor of the Oil & Gas Journal and an experienced energy beat writer for the Houston Chronicle. We wanted to solicit their broad views on peak oil and invite them to cover the conference October 18th- 20th.

One question we asked these journalists was


Our hosts had good working familiarity with history of peak oil forecasting, including the flawed early calls. With decades in the business, they had also seen dozens if not hundreds of oil and gas price forecasts miss the mark. In short, experience has taught them to be mistrust forecasts about anything. Soothsaying strikes these writers as a smug and dangerous practice.

Having followed the peak oil discussion for twenty years, we share this concern. In our opinion, excessive certitude may be the soft underbelly of the peak oil movement.

ASPO-USA