The character of Peak Oil

People have talked about running out of oil since the dawn of the petroleum era — often as if it would be experienced as a sudden collapse. Now most experts refer more accurately to ‘Peak Oil.’ While an ultimate peak in petroleum production is inevitable, I argue that the authors discussing it commonly make two mistakes. First they describe the curve of petroleum production rate versus time as symmetrical, like a bell curve, when in fact there is no physical reason to expect this symmetry.

The Peak Oil concept is generally attributed to M. ‘King’ Hubbert. Reading some of his early work suggests to me that he originally did not envision a symmetrical curve. It appears that, as interest grew in his work and people sought a prediction of when peak oil would occur, he used symmetry as a simplifying assumption to allow him to calculate the time.


In fact there is good reason to expect a decline of petroleum production to be slower and more gradual than the growth rate. What would you expect to happen when petroleum production peaks and begins to decline? I suggest that the most obvious answer is that prices will rise dramatically. (Yes, I believe that someday we will be looking back fondly on the times when we were getting a gallon of gasoline for only four dollars!) When petroleum prices are rising and staying high, what will the oil companies be doing? Of course, they will be exploring more aggressively, developing and reassessing what were previously considered marginal discoveries, and implementing more exotic, costly Enhanced Oil Recovery technologies. All of these factors will tend to mitigate the decline rate. But their impact will really be felt after Peak Oil has established and sustained high prices are these factors are not likely to forestall peak, only to mitigate the decline.

Evolving Energy Use