The Century of Roots

by A.M Samsam Bakhtiari

The 21st century is still young as there are another ninety-three years to go. So it might sound over-ambitious to claim that ‘The Event of the Century’ is already behind us. But I’ll gladly take the risk; for I seriously believe that the peaking of the global production of crude oil — commonly know as ‘Peak Oil’ — has occurred in 2006 and will be ‘The Event’ bound to dominate the history of the 21st century: one of those ‘Historical Inflection Points’ which abruptly change “fundamentals” in the course of World History. I cannot foresee any other ‘Event’ coming to eclipse ‘Peak Oil’, not even the World Wars which might be unleashed in the Peak’s aftermath and further fueled by widespread resources’ scarcity. Unless, of course, humanity decides upon collective suicide with the massive use of weapons of mass destruction; but such an annihilating ‘Event’ would spell the word ‘End’ for most, if not all, of Mankind

Take, for example, population. In the ‘Post Peak’ era, population growth will gradually decrease before becoming stagnant (following crude oil) and passing a Peak of its own — my early projections show a ‘Population Peak’ occurring some time around 2025 (a twenty-year lag respective to oil) at a global level of around 7.5 to 8.0 billion people. There is little doubt that crude oil is our world’s ‘Master Domino’: when it thrives all other dominoes flourish, and when it tumbles it does topple all of the others too. Thus, interestingly, ‘Peak Oil’ will not usher in a revolution, but rather an evolution ‘en sense contraire’ (‘in reverse gear’).

‘Peak Oil’, however, is now in the past and we are presently left facing the ‘Post Peak’ era. There is little doubt that in this brand-new period, massive changes are bound to occur. The usage of relatively cheap crude oil has invaded every nook and cranny of our modern world economy — sometimes without the wasteful invasion being fully realized. Moreover, the ubiquitous oil products have created addictions (especially in the transport sector) which will be extremely difficult to uproot. And, not only is the addiction to motor cars common throughout the developed world, but it has also begun making deep inroads in China, Russia and even India: a very dangerous development indeed because as American physician and poet Oliver Wendell Holmes (1809-1894) judiciously remarked:

“Man’s mind, once stretched by a new idea,

never regains its original dimensions”

SamsamBakhtiari.com