The Caribbean will pay a price for flatfootedness, says economist

…”In a lecture in 2001, I tried to explain that oil prices would increase to US$80 per barrel. (This indicates a US$3 billion dollar increase to the airline industry alone in operational expenses as a consequence for tourism in the Caribbean).

I shall like now to suggest that according to our analysis at the Landfall Centre, we expect oil prices to hit between US$150-US$200 per barrel in the next three years.”


Morris said in an interview after the private conference, “We are not magicians. Our approach involves three methodologies: At first we are historical, in the sense that we look at the history of economic phenomena; who the players are and what advantages they seek and the data that supports possible outcomes. Then we comb and ’sweat’ the data for inline trends or anomalies against the history. Then we throw hundreds of questions and scenarios at the data profile to get scope and scale. On this last point, for instance, it seems clear to me that the scope of the current commodity price phenomena is similar to the Industrial Revolution. So there will be incredible shocks, shakeouts, stupendous winners, and devastated losers. The scale is that these prices will affect every sector of smaller economies. And those impacts are our focus.”

Caribbean Net News