The Brinkmanship Of Energy Geopolitics

“It is thus probably no overstatement to say that the Russian campaign has been won in the space of two weeks.” – German Chief of General Staff Franz Halder, July 3, 1941

“The whole situation makes it increasingly plain that we have underestimated the Russian colossus.” – General Halder, Aug 11, 1941.

Never underestimate how quickly an overstretched, embattled army can turn the tables in a war zone. In the process, it can induce a reordering in the global power structure by simply exiting. Yes, the Persian Gulf crisis can indeed escalate into an extreme, maximalist scenario. The decisive factor – as always – depends on the energy reservoir of the protagonists. In this case the question of ‘energy’ takes a more literal interpretation.

Upon closer scrutiny, the United States has some startling weapons at its disposal.

Global Energy Bank

PARIS, Feb 14 (AP) – The head of the International Energy Agency said Tuesday that its member governments could coordinate a release of strategic oil reserves that would offset a shutdown of Iranian crude output for up to 18 months. Asked whether the agency’s efforts could wholly mitigate such a production shortfall, Claude Mandil, executive director of the energy watchdog for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, said: “The answer is clearly ‘yes’.”

Worries over the international response to Iran’s nuclear program pushed oil prices back near US$70 a barrel earlier this year, though data showing adequate supplies have calmed the market. Western leaders fear the program is aimed at developing nuclear weapons, though Iran insists it is only intended to generate electricity.

CounterCurrents.org