The best measure of oil price is what you paid today

When the slump in the global economy brought oil demand growth grinding to a halt last September, price forecasters who had been predicting a rise from $150 to $200 a barrel were understandably shaken.

How does a self-respecting financial analyst respond to a precipitous $100 a barrel slide in four months, leaving predictions of a two-year


There would appear to be two options.

The first might be to throw oneself off the nearest balcony. This would be a particularly likely choice for anyone so convinced by their own erroneous forecasts that they also bet the family silver on them.

The safe option, of course, is to write increasingly lengthy reports insisting that one