Texas and US Lower 48 Oil Production as a Model for Saudi Arabia and the World

GraphOilogy – As many people now know, 50 years ago this March M. King Hubbert predicted that US Lower 48 and Texas oil production would peak, and enter a terminal decline, somewhere between 1966 and 1971. Dr. Hubbert also predicted that world oil production would peak, and enter a terminal decline within 50 years, i.e., by 2006. To be clear, despite what is either a profound misunderstanding of or a misrepresentation of Dr. Hubber’ts work in some quarters, Dr. Hubbert was not predicting the end of world oil production by 2006; he was predicting that production peaks when producing regions have consumed about half of their recoverable conventional oil reserves.

In our previous article, “M. King Hubbert’s Lower 48 Prediction Revisited,” we outlined a simplified way of predicting what Kenneth Deffeyes designated as Qt, or total recoverable conventional oil production for a region. The method has been designated Hubbert Linearization, or HL, by Stuart Staniford, with The Oil Drum blog.
GraphOilogy