Strong Argument for a Slow Decline

There is a lot of doomer FUD circulating in the peak oil community about how global oil production will collapse or decline rapidly in the post-peak period. Some of the worst offenders are suggesting that production will decline at rates of 8-12%, or more. These people are fearmongering, plain and simple, and have no sound basis for making these claims. Here are 4 good reasons why global liquids production will decline at a mild rate of less than 2% for 20 years after peak oil.

1) Stuart Staniford of the Oil Drum has shown that Hubbert Theory says Peak is a Slow Squeeze. His analysis shows that (on the average) the world will decline at a rate slower than 2% for 20 years. In fact, it suggests the world will decline slower than the U.S., where liquids production has been declining at an average annual rate of 1.4% for 36 years since its peak in 1970.

Peak Oil Debunked